College Basketball betting trends since 2016-17
League-wide results against closing lines. Each game counts twice in the split table (once per team), so "Home" and "Away" mirror each other. Records are what happened, not what will happen.
By season (home-team view)
| Season | G | Home win% | Home ATS | Favorite ATS | O/U | Avg total scored | Avg closing total | Games with line |
|---|
| 2016-17 | 5964 | 66.7% | 2019-2045-106 49.7% | 1973-1985-106 49.8% | 2090-2024-49 50.8% over | 145.88 | 144.04 | 4170 |
| 2017-18 | 6003 | 67.9% | 2222-2152-73 50.8% | 2196-2176-73 50.2% | 2196-2196-49 50.0% over | 146.47 | 144.64 | 4447 |
| 2018-19 | 6049 | 66.9% | 2762-2763-100 50.0% | 2756-2732-100 50.2% | 2677-2876-67 48.2% over | 144.44 | 143.64 | 5625 |
| 2019-20 | 5767 | 67.2% | 2651-2599-81 50.5% | 2590-2660-81 49.3% | 2651-2623-57 50.3% over | 141.09 | 139.74 | 5331 |
| 2020-21 | 4285 | 64.1% | 1929-1940-63 49.9% | 1920-1941-63 49.7% | 1969-1939-24 50.4% over | 142.29 | 141.02 | 3932 |
| 2021-22 | 5966 | 65.4% | 2627-2795-73 48.5% | 2582-2820-73 47.8% | 2756-2698-41 50.5% over | 140.80 | 139.39 | 5495 |
| 2022-23 | 6222 | 66.9% | 2932-2766-88 51.5% | 2810-2862-88 49.5% | 3013-2793-34 51.9% over | 142.19 | 140.38 | 5786 |
| 2023-24 | 6243 | 66.7% | 2872-2867-92 50.0% | 2888-2836-92 50.5% | 2945-2830-57 51.0% over | 145.91 | 144.39 | 5831 |
| 2024-25 | 6292 | 67.1% | 2878-2886 49.9% | 2854-2910 49.5% | 2894-2870 50.2% over | 146.34 | 144.99 | 5764 |
| 2025-26 | 6300 | 66.7% | 2804-2906 49.1% | 2761-2949 48.4% | 2821-2913 49.2% over | 150.10 | 148.84 | 5710 |
Situational splits (all teams)
| Split | G | SU | Win% | ATS | Cover% | Avg ATS margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA | ML ROI |
|---|
| All games | 118182 | 59091-59091 | 50.0% | 51415-51415-1352 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 52024-51524-756 | 50.2% | 72.3 | 72.3 | -8.2% |
| Regular season | 116022 | 58011-58011 | 50.0% | 50346-50346-1330 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 50968-50438-738 | 50.3% | 72.3 | 72.3 | -8.3% |
| Postseason | 2160 | 1080-1080 | 50.0% | 1069-1069-22 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 1056-1086-18 | 49.3% | 72.7 | 72.7 | -4.7% |
| Home | 52467 | 35465-17002 | 67.6% | 22449-22546-598 | 49.9% | +0.1 | 22909-22409-325 | 50.6% | 76.5 | 68.4 | -3.5% |
| Away | 52467 | 17002-35465 | 32.4% | 22546-22449-598 | 50.1% | -0.1 | 22909-22409-325 | 50.6% | 68.4 | 76.5 | -13.9% |
| Neutral site | 13248 | 6624-6624 | 50.0% | 6420-6420-156 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 6206-6706-106 | 48.1% | 71.4 | 71.4 | -4.7% |
| Favorite | 51877 | 37805-14072 | 72.9% | 25330-25871-676 | 49.5% | -0.3 | 25841-25625-375 | 50.2% | 75.9 | 68.1 | -2.0% |
| Underdog | 51877 | 14072-37805 | 27.1% | 25871-25330-676 | 50.5% | +0.3 | 25841-25625-375 | 50.2% | 68.1 | 75.9 | -14.4% |
| Fav by 10+ | 14897 | 13601-1296 | 91.3% | 7066-7645-186 | 48.0% | -0.0 | 7525-7243-111 | 51.0% | 80.7 | 64.2 | -1.0% |
| Dog by 10+ | 14897 | 1296-13601 | 8.7% | 7645-7066-186 | 52.0% | +0.0 | 7525-7243-111 | 51.0% | 64.2 | 80.7 | -32.1% |
| Home favorite | 37289 | 28231-9058 | 75.7% | 18272-18539-478 | 49.6% | -0.2 | 18609-18389-264 | 50.3% | 76.5 | 67.5 | -1.4% |
| Home underdog | 14588 | 5014-9574 | 34.4% | 7332-7058-198 | 51.0% | +0.6 | 7232-7236-111 | 50.0% | 69.5 | 74.2 | -7.7% |
| Road favorite | 14588 | 9574-5014 | 65.6% | 7058-7332-198 | 49.0% | -0.6 | 7232-7236-111 | 50.0% | 74.2 | 69.5 | -3.4% |
| Road underdog | 37289 | 9058-28231 | 24.3% | 18539-18272-478 | 50.4% | +0.2 | 18609-18389-264 | 50.3% | 67.5 | 76.5 | -17.2% |
| After a win | 59059 | 33356-25703 | 56.5% | 27247-27094-701 | 50.1% | +0.1 | 27243-27430-405 | 49.8% | 73.6 | 70.7 | -6.1% |
| After a loss | 57910 | 25507-32403 | 44.0% | 24066-24224-648 | 49.8% | -0.1 | 24668-24003-348 | 50.7% | 71.2 | 73.7 | -10.5% |
| After ATS cover | 55755 | 29131-26624 | 52.2% | 25241-25323-671 | 49.9% | -0.0 | 25549-25353-379 | 50.2% | 72.8 | 71.5 | -8.0% |
| After ATS loss | 56084 | 28681-27403 | 51.1% | 25222-25175-653 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 25487-25238-356 | 50.2% | 72.8 | 71.7 | -8.3% |
| Rest advantage | 24684 | 12425-12259 | 50.3% | 10890-11342-274 | 49.0% | -0.2 | 11169-11205-162 | 49.9% | 72.0 | 72.4 | -10.0% |
| Rest disadvantage | 24684 | 12259-12425 | 49.7% | 11342-10890-274 | 51.0% | +0.2 | 11169-11205-162 | 49.9% | 72.4 | 72.0 | -8.0% |
| Conference game | 68796 | 34398-34398 | 50.0% | 32703-32703-902 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 33202-32630-464 | 50.4% | 71.8 | 71.8 | -7.4% |
| Non-conference | 49386 | 24693-24693 | 50.0% | 18712-18712-450 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 18822-18894-292 | 49.9% | 73.0 | 73.0 | -9.6% |
| Ranked team | 8067 | 5601-2466 | 69.4% | 3904-3985-104 | 49.5% | +0.1 | 3883-4056-58 | 48.9% | 76.9 | 68.7 | -3.7% |
| Vs ranked opponent | 8067 | 2466-5601 | 30.6% | 3985-3904-104 | 50.5% | -0.1 | 3883-4056-58 | 48.9% | 68.7 | 76.9 | -16.1% |
| Ranked vs ranked | 2906 | 1453-1453 | 50.0% | 1434-1434-36 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 1398-1490-18 | 48.4% | 72.8 | 72.8 | -4.7% |
| Unranked vs ranked | 5161 | 1013-4148 | 19.6% | 2551-2470-68 | 50.8% | -0.1 | 2485-2566-40 | 49.2% | 66.3 | 79.2 | -23.3% |
| Nov–Dec | 49888 | 24944-24944 | 50.0% | 19146-19146-474 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 19262-19344-286 | 49.9% | 72.9 | 72.9 | -9.6% |
| Jan–Feb | 55696 | 27848-27848 | 50.0% | 26096-26096-742 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 26688-25878-364 | 50.8% | 72.0 | 72.0 | -7.3% |
| March | 12474 | 6237-6237 | 50.0% | 6111-6111-136 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 6020-6234-104 | 49.1% | 71.6 | 71.6 | -7.8% |
| Total 150+ | 25128 | 12564-12564 | 50.0% | 12370-12370-300 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 12364-12564-200 | 49.6% | 78.3 | 78.3 | -9.0% |
| Total under 130 | 7858 | 3929-3929 | 50.0% | 3880-3880-98 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 4148-3644-66 | 53.2% | 63.8 | 63.8 | -9.4% |
Moneyline price buckets
Win rate vs the win rate the closing price implied (with the bookmaker margin still in it) and flat-stake ROI. Positive ROI in a bucket over a long run is rare; check it holds across seasons before trusting it.
| Price | Bets | W-L | Win% | Implied% | ROI |
|---|
| Fav −300 or shorter | 22411 | 19293-3118 | 86.1% | 87.3% | -1.4% |
| Fav −300 to −201 | 9215 | 6429-2786 | 69.8% | 71.0% | -1.8% |
| Fav −200 to −151 | 8434 | 5183-3251 | 61.5% | 63.5% | -3.2% |
| Fav −150 to −101 | 12497 | 6724-5773 | 53.8% | 55.7% | -3.4% |
| Dog +100 to +149 | 12949 | 5579-7370 | 43.1% | 45.2% | -4.7% |
| Dog +150 to +199 | 8245 | 2795-5450 | 33.9% | 37.0% | -8.3% |
| Dog +200 to +299 | 9059 | 2408-6651 | 26.6% | 29.4% | -9.7% |
| Dog +300 or longer | 18222 | 2102-16120 | 11.5% | 14.6% | -27.1% |