Expose the Books
DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and the rest are not your friends, your “partners”, or your hype men. They are counterparties. Every dollar they post in revenue came out of a bettor’s pocket. Here is how they take it — with the regulator filings, court records and SEC disclosures to prove every line.
22 NFL angles tested on 2016–2022, re-checked on 2023–now. 1 survived. NBA: 18 tested, 0 survived. This week’s plays, straight from the data.
Parlays built only from legs that held up out-of-sample — with the real payout, the real hit odds and a public results tracker.
The vig, the 52.38% wall, favourites covering only 48.5%, and what betting blind cost since 2016.
State filings: books keep ~17–19% of parlay money vs ~4–5% on straight bets. Same-game parlays explained.
Massachusetts made the books hand over their data. Beat the closing line, get capped. Lose, get a VIP host.
DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics: what regulators actually fined them for.
Your over grades as a loss if a star plays 9 minutes. The house rules, the participation policy, the integrity cases.