The Bets to Take
Touts sell “locks.” We sell nothing. We tested 22 NFL betting angles, picked in advance, on 2016–2022 — then checked every one on games they had never seen (2023–now). An angle only makes this page if it beat the 52.38% wall and made money at the real closing odds in both periods, on real samples (150+ and 60+ bets). Same test on 18 NBA angles: 2016-17–2021-22, then since 2022-23 (300+ and 100+ bets).
This week’s plays
| Kickoff (CT) | Game | Play | Odds | Our est. win% | EV / $1 | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25, 07:20 PM CT | KC @ SEA | UNDER 42.5 | -110 | 53.0% | +0.012 | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Mon Oct 26, 07:15 PM CT | DAL @ PHI | UNDER 43.5 | -102 | 53.0% | +0.049 | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Thu Oct 29, 07:15 PM CT | CAR @ GB | UNDER 47.5 | -115 | 53.0% | -0.009 | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Sun Nov 01, 07:20 PM CT | PHI @ WAS | UNDER 41.5 | -110 | 53.0% | +0.012 | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Mon Nov 02, 07:15 PM CT | CHI @ SEA | UNDER 46.5 | -105 | 53.0% | +0.034 | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
Odds are the latest line in our nflverse feed — shop for better. Our win% is the full 2016–now hit rate pulled toward 50% (a 100-win/100-loss prior) to knock down luck. Plays whose price makes the estimate negative-EV are flagged red and kept off the tickets.
Want them stacked? → Long Shot Tickets · Results tracker
Every angle we tested
| Angle | 2016–2022 W-L-P | Win% | ROI −110 | ROI close | 2023–now W-L-P | Win% | ROI −110 | ROI close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home underdogs | 345-324-14 | 51.6% | -1.5% | -0.1% | 176-180-10 | 49.4% | -5.5% | -5.1% | dead |
| Road favourites | 324-345-14 | 48.4% | -7.4% | -4.9% | 180-176-10 | 50.6% | -3.4% | -3.6% | dead |
| Underdogs of +7 or more | 279-279-15 | 50.0% | -4.4% | -4.5% | 129-108-6 | 54.4% | +3.8% | +4.1% | dead |
| Division underdogs | 347-323-14 | 51.8% | -1.1% | +0.6% | 168-148-5 | 53.2% | +1.5% | +2.0% | watchlist |
| Home division underdogs | 130-127-3 | 50.6% | -3.4% | -1.9% | 68-63-3 | 51.9% | -0.9% | -0.5% | dead |
| Underdogs after a loss of 14+ | 206-182-6 | 53.1% | +1.3% | +2.7% | 97-99-4 | 49.5% | -5.4% | -5.1% | dead |
| Fade teams that won by 14+ last week (bet their opponent) | 311-302-14 | 50.7% | -3.1% | -1.5% | 162-152-5 | 51.6% | -1.5% | -1.4% | dead |
| Team off a bye vs team not off a bye | 105-103-6 | 50.5% | -3.5% | -1.4% | 40-43-1 | 48.2% | -7.9% | -8.1% | dead |
| Primetime underdogs | 207-189-11 | 52.3% | -0.2% | +1.7% | 108-105-7 | 50.7% | -3.1% | -2.6% | dead |
| Big favourites −10 or more | 121-130-9 | 48.2% | -7.7% | -3.9% | 49-38-1 | 56.3% | +7.4% | +6.9% | dead |
| Short-week road teams (≤5 days rest) | 54-52-4 | 50.9% | -2.6% | -1.2% | 29-33-2 | 46.8% | -10.4% | -10.4% | dead |
| Underdogs +3 to +3.5 (key number) | 231-196-25 | 54.1% | +3.1% | +4.9% | 106-128-16 | 45.3% | -12.7% | -12.7% | dead |
| Unders, wind ≥ 15 mph | 86-67-0 | 56.2% | +7.3% | +9.2% | 27-22-2 | 55.1% | +5.0% | +4.5% | watchlist |
| Unders, division games | 349-327-8 | 51.6% | -1.4% | +0.6% | 155-166-0 | 48.3% | -7.8% | -7.6% | dead |
| Unders, totals of 50+ | 169-160-5 | 51.4% | -1.9% | +0.1% | 43-43-0 | 50.0% | -4.5% | -4.3% | dead |
| Unders, primetime games | 220-183-4 | 54.6% | +4.2% | +6.5% | 115-103-2 | 52.8% | +0.7% | +1.2% | TAKE |
| Unders, playoff games | 43-40-0 | 51.8% | -1.1% | +0.6% | 18-19-2 | 48.6% | -6.8% | -6.5% | dead |
| Overs, dome / closed roof | 263-251-3 | 51.2% | -2.3% | -0.3% | 151-151-2 | 50.0% | -4.5% | -4.6% | dead |
| Overs, totals under 40 | 72-72-0 | 50.0% | -4.5% | -2.6% | 65-75-1 | 46.4% | -11.3% | -11.2% | dead |
| Moneyline underdogs +200 or longer ML | 181-667-3 | 21.3% | -59.0% | -14.7% | 92-277-1 | 24.9% | -52.3% | -1.9% | dead |
| Home moneyline underdogs ML | 227-424-5 | 34.9% | -33.2% | -3.9% | 110-230-1 | 32.4% | -38.1% | -12.7% | dead |
| Moneyline favourites −300 or shorter ML | 434-95-1 | 82.0% | +56.5% | +0.9% | 201-60-1 | 77.0% | +46.8% | -6.8% | dead |
Moneyline angles are judged on ROI only (52.38% doesn’t apply). “Watchlist” = profitable in both periods but failed the win-rate or sample-size bar.
NBA: every angle we tested
Same method, NBA lines: 18 pre-picked angles, in-sample 2016-17–2021-22, out-of-sample since 2022-23 (300+ and 100+ bets required). Zero NBA angles qualify right now. Not one classic NBA spot — home dogs, back-to-backs, rest edges, blowout bounce-backs — beat the vig in both periods. So there are no NBA plays and no NBA legs on the tickets. We won’t make them up; they appear here automatically the day one qualifies.
| Angle | 2016-17–2021-22 W-L-P | Win% | ROI close | since 2022-23 W-L-P | Win% | ROI close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home underdogs | 1287-1340-53 | 49.0% | -6.4% | 1008-987-19 | 50.5% | -3.5% | dead |
| Road favorites | 1340-1287-53 | 51.0% | -2.6% | 987-1008-19 | 49.5% | -5.5% | dead |
| Underdogs of +10 or more | 601-559-20 | 51.8% | -1.1% | 539-556-9 | 49.2% | -6.0% | dead |
| Favorites of −10 or more | 559-601-20 | 48.2% | -7.9% | 556-539-9 | 50.8% | -3.0% | dead |
| Rested team vs opponent on 2nd night of a back-to-back | 936-910-33 | 50.7% | -3.2% | 617-581-13 | 51.5% | -1.7% | dead |
| Team on 2nd night of a back-to-back (road) | 747-760-30 | 49.6% | -5.2% | 444-466-9 | 48.8% | -6.8% | dead |
| Rest advantage of 2+ days | 393-358-14 | 52.3% | -0.1% | 265-207-7 | 56.1% | +7.0% | dead |
| Underdogs after a loss of 15+ | 724-706-24 | 50.6% | -3.3% | 588-552-4 | 51.6% | -1.4% | dead |
| Fade teams that won by 15+ last game (bet opponent) | 1149-1112-39 | 50.8% | -3.0% | 827-896-19 | 48.0% | -8.3% | dead |
| Playoff underdogs | 220-272-5 | 44.7% | -14.5% | 163-168-0 | 49.2% | -6.4% | dead |
| Home teams after an ATS loss | 1824-1906-63 | 48.9% | -6.6% | 1292-1318-12 | 49.5% | -5.4% | dead |
| Unders, playoff games | 252-238-8 | 51.4% | -1.8% | 164-166-1 | 49.7% | -5.1% | dead |
| Unders, either team on 2nd night of a back-to-back | 1051-1120-31 | 48.4% | -7.4% | 714-746-7 | 48.9% | -6.5% | dead |
| Unders, totals 10+ above the season average total | 502-489-16 | 50.7% | -3.2% | 376-345-6 | 52.1% | -0.4% | dead |
| Overs, totals 10+ below the season average total | 508-445-6 | 53.3% | +1.7% | 376-344-2 | 52.2% | -0.3% | dead |
| Moneyline underdogs +300 or longer ML | 335-1564-0 | 17.6% | +2.1% | 238-1168-0 | 16.9% | -9.0% | dead |
| Home moneyline underdogs ML | 880-1659-0 | 34.7% | -2.6% | 615-1260-0 | 32.8% | -8.0% | dead |
| Moneyline favorites −400 or shorter ML | 1441-287-0 | 83.4% | -4.1% | 1100-218-0 | 83.5% | -4.2% | dead |
Line shopping: the only free edge
The same bet is priced differently at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and the rest. Taking −105 instead of −110 drops your break-even from 52.38% to 51.22%. Getting +3 instead of +2.5 in the NFL flips a lot of games: final margins land on exactly 3 more than on any other number (see key numbers).
- Have accounts at 3+ books. Check all of them before every bet.
- Free odds feed: The Odds API has a free Starter tier — 500 credits a month, most bookmakers, all markets. Enough to price-check a weekly card.
- Never bet into a −120 total when another book has −105 on the same number.