College Football betting trends since 2016
League-wide results against closing lines. Each game counts twice in the split table (once per team), so "Home" and "Away" mirror each other. Records are what happened, not what will happen.
By season (home-team view)
| Season | G | Home win% | Home ATS | Favorite ATS | O/U | Avg total scored | Avg closing total | Games with line |
|---|
| 2016 | 977 | 62.0% | 421-424-21 49.8% | 399-428-21 48.2% | 364-388-9 48.4% over | 58.29 | 57.11 | 866 |
| 2017 | 974 | 61.3% | 396-465-23 46.0% | 411-450-23 47.7% | 368-420-8 46.7% over | 55.81 | 56.12 | 884 |
| 2018 | 974 | 63.3% | 436-466-21 48.3% | 433-467-21 48.1% | 425-432-9 49.6% over | 57.35 | 56.69 | 923 |
| 2019 | 983 | 63.7% | 470-481-18 49.4% | 473-477-18 49.8% | 462-493-15 48.4% over | 55.77 | 55.78 | 969 |
| 2020 | 573 | 58.6% | 275-287-9 48.9% | 276-286-9 49.1% | 283-280-8 50.3% over | 57.53 | 56.86 | 571 |
| 2021 | 976 | 61.5% | 487-454-14 51.8% | 478-463-14 50.8% | 457-490-8 48.3% over | 54.98 | 55.26 | 955 |
| 2022 | 971 | 62.0% | 459-492-14 48.3% | 447-503-14 47.1% | 477-475-13 50.1% over | 54.86 | 54.79 | 965 |
| 2023 | 966 | 63.1% | 458-477-22 49.0% | 458-476-22 49.0% | 486-461-10 51.3% over | 53.81 | 52.54 | 957 |
| 2024 | 965 | 63.1% | 477-480-1 49.8% | 464-493-1 48.5% | 494-464 51.6% over | 54.20 | 52.58 | 958 |
| 2025 | 958 | 64.2% | 487-459-3 51.5% | 487-459-3 51.5% | 470-480 49.5% over | 52.95 | 52.62 | 949 |
| 2026 | 566 | 69.8% | 307-252-7 54.9% | 293-266-7 52.4% | 296-270 52.3% over | 53.45 | 52.52 | 566 |
Situational splits (all teams)
| Split | G | SU | Win% | ATS | Cover% | Avg ATS margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA | ML ROI |
|---|
| All games | 19766 | 9883-9883 | 50.0% | 9410-9410-306 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 9164-9306-160 | 49.6% | 27.7 | 27.7 | -7.5% |
| Regular season | 18928 | 9464-9464 | 50.0% | 8999-8999-296 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 8746-8896-156 | 49.6% | 27.7 | 27.7 | -7.7% |
| Postseason | 838 | 419-419 | 50.0% | 411-411-10 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 418-410-4 | 50.5% | 27.3 | 27.3 | -4.1% |
| Home | 9273 | 5900-3373 | 63.6% | 4362-4451-144 | 49.5% | -0.0 | 4301-4337-75 | 49.8% | 31.7 | 23.8 | -2.1% |
| Away | 9273 | 3373-5900 | 36.4% | 4451-4362-144 | 50.5% | +0.0 | 4301-4337-75 | 49.8% | 23.8 | 31.7 | -13.7% |
| Neutral site | 1220 | 610-610 | 50.0% | 597-597-18 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 562-632-10 | 47.1% | 27.0 | 27.0 | -3.1% |
| Favorite | 9540 | 7265-2275 | 76.2% | 4619-4768-153 | 49.2% | +0.0 | 4566-4637-80 | 49.6% | 34.5 | 20.8 | -3.9% |
| Underdog | 9540 | 2275-7265 | 23.8% | 4768-4619-153 | 50.8% | -0.0 | 4566-4637-80 | 49.6% | 20.8 | 34.5 | -11.2% |
| Fav by 14+ | 3723 | 3472-251 | 93.3% | 1834-1834-55 | 50.0% | +0.1 | 1750-1727-35 | 50.3% | 40.9 | 15.5 | +0.2% |
| Dog by 14+ | 3723 | 251-3472 | 6.7% | 1834-1834-55 | 50.0% | -0.1 | 1750-1727-35 | 50.3% | 15.5 | 40.9 | -32.3% |
| Home favorite | 6287 | 5000-1287 | 79.5% | 3041-3148-98 | 49.1% | +0.1 | 2956-3043-52 | 49.3% | 35.7 | 19.7 | -2.5% |
| Home underdog | 3253 | 988-2265 | 30.4% | 1620-1578-55 | 50.7% | +0.0 | 1610-1594-28 | 50.2% | 23.0 | 32.3 | -1.2% |
| Road favorite | 3253 | 2265-988 | 69.6% | 1578-1620-55 | 49.3% | -0.0 | 1610-1594-28 | 50.2% | 32.3 | 23.0 | -6.4% |
| Road underdog | 6287 | 1287-5000 | 20.5% | 3148-3041-98 | 50.9% | -0.1 | 2956-3043-52 | 49.3% | 19.7 | 35.7 | -17.1% |
| After a win | 9808 | 5716-4092 | 58.3% | 4737-4666-144 | 50.4% | +0.2 | 4615-4735-76 | 49.4% | 30.0 | 25.2 | -6.1% |
| After a loss | 9687 | 4063-5624 | 41.9% | 4561-4639-157 | 49.6% | -0.2 | 4509-4513-82 | 50.0% | 25.4 | 30.0 | -9.2% |
| After ATS cover | 9600 | 4960-4640 | 51.7% | 4540-4628-129 | 49.5% | -0.1 | 4509-4535-68 | 49.9% | 28.2 | 27.1 | -9.0% |
| After ATS loss | 9462 | 4599-4863 | 48.6% | 4593-4510-166 | 50.5% | +0.1 | 4468-4549-89 | 49.6% | 27.3 | 28.1 | -6.4% |
| Rest advantage | 2870 | 1324-1546 | 46.1% | 1390-1381-34 | 50.2% | -0.2 | 1373-1363-28 | 50.2% | 26.4 | 28.9 | -9.9% |
| Rest disadvantage | 2870 | 1546-1324 | 53.9% | 1381-1390-34 | 49.8% | +0.2 | 1373-1363-28 | 50.2% | 28.9 | 26.4 | -4.9% |
| Conference game | 11682 | 5841-5841 | 50.0% | 5586-5586-196 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 5516-5684-96 | 49.2% | 27.5 | 27.5 | -5.7% |
| Non-conference | 8084 | 4042-4042 | 50.0% | 3824-3824-110 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 3648-3622-64 | 50.2% | 27.9 | 27.9 | -10.9% |
| Ranked team | 3327 | 2366-961 | 71.1% | 1611-1646-56 | 49.5% | +0.0 | 1598-1653-33 | 49.2% | 33.8 | 21.7 | -4.6% |
| Vs ranked opponent | 3327 | 961-2366 | 28.9% | 1646-1611-56 | 50.5% | -0.0 | 1598-1653-33 | 49.2% | 21.7 | 33.8 | -12.4% |
| Unranked vs ranked | 2221 | 408-1813 | 18.4% | 1104-1069-38 | 50.8% | -0.1 | 1076-1083-23 | 49.8% | 18.9 | 36.9 | -13.6% |
| Bowl/playoff | 838 | 419-419 | 50.0% | 411-411-10 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 418-410-4 | 50.5% | 27.3 | 27.3 | -4.1% |
| Off a bye (10+ days) | 2956 | 1429-1527 | 48.3% | 1427-1402-45 | 50.4% | +0.1 | 1400-1422-21 | 49.6% | 27.0 | 27.9 | -5.9% |
| Short week (≤5 days) | 261 | 141-120 | 54.0% | 124-128-5 | 49.2% | +0.3 | 121-127-3 | 48.8% | 29.2 | 25.8 | -4.4% |
| Total 60+ | 4580 | 2290-2290 | 50.0% | 2236-2236-102 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 2088-2434-58 | 46.2% | 32.2 | 32.2 | -8.4% |
| Total under 45 | 1718 | 859-859 | 50.0% | 839-839-40 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 856-846-16 | 50.3% | 21.6 | 21.6 | -5.6% |
| Sept | 6562 | 3281-3281 | 50.0% | 3117-3117-112 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 3010-2920-52 | 50.8% | 28.0 | 28.0 | -10.7% |
| Oct | 5616 | 2808-2808 | 50.0% | 2668-2668-86 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 2584-2732-40 | 48.6% | 27.4 | 27.4 | -3.4% |
| Nov | 5462 | 2731-2731 | 50.0% | 2610-2610-90 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 2636-2572-50 | 50.6% | 27.8 | 27.8 | -7.6% |
Moneyline price buckets
Win rate vs the win rate the closing price implied (with the bookmaker margin still in it) and flat-stake ROI. Positive ROI in a bucket over a long run is rare; check it holds across seasons before trusting it.
| Price | Bets | W-L | Win% | Implied% | ROI |
|---|
| Fav −300 or shorter | 4714 | 4052-662 | 86.0% | 88.2% | -2.6% |
| Fav −300 to −201 | 1452 | 967-485 | 66.6% | 71.3% | -6.6% |
| Fav −200 to −151 | 1150 | 699-451 | 60.8% | 63.5% | -4.3% |
| Fav −150 to −101 | 1577 | 809-768 | 51.3% | 55.7% | -7.8% |
| Dog +100 to +149 | 1672 | 759-913 | 45.4% | 45.1% | +0.6% |
| Dog +150 to +199 | 1144 | 428-716 | 37.4% | 36.9% | +1.8% |
| Dog +200 to +299 | 1553 | 448-1105 | 28.8% | 29.3% | -1.3% |
| Dog +300 or longer | 4011 | 472-3539 | 11.8% | 14.0% | -23.0% |