Ace Bailey

G · #19 · UTA · 2025-26 to 2026-27 · 74 games played

Minutes risk

Props depend on minutes. This section shows how steady his minutes have been and what happened in past situations where coaches tend to cut playing time. It's based on his last 20 games (last two seasons) and on his history. It describes the past and doesn't predict the future.

Minutes risk: LowNext game 2026-10-25 vs LAL · line +6.5

No minutes flags right now.

29.6 ± 6.6Last-20 minutes per game (median 32.0, range 7–36, 10th pct 23.8)

27.4 / 29.9Last 5 / last 10 MPG · 2026-27 23.0 in 2 games

5% · 10% · 25%Last 20: share of games under 20 / 24 / 28 min · 20% were 6+ under his median

Minutes by game situation (last 2 seasons)

Situation	G	MPG
Final margin within 15		26.2
Blowout (15+ either way)	30	29.3
Rested (1+ days off)		26.9
2nd night of back-to-back	13	30.5
Team back-to-back 2nd nights: he sat	0 of 13
DNPs listed as rest / injury management	0 (0 on back-to-backs)
Started	84% of games

Per-36 vs actual (last 20 games)

Per-36 numbers make bench players look better than they are. What counts for a prop is his real production at the minutes he actually plays.

	PTS	REB	AST
Per 36 minutes	21.9	5.8	2.8
Actual per game (29.6 min)	18.0	4.8	2.3

Minutes distribution (last 2 seasons)

<1010–1515–2020–2424–2828–3232–3636–4040+

Last 30 games: minutes

Red = 6+ minutes under his median.

Returning from absences: minutes in the first 10 games back

Each row is one stretch of 2+ straight team games he missed. "Before" is his average over the 10 games before the absence. Game-by-game minutes after his return show how any restriction actually played out.

Missed	Reason	Games	Before	G1	G2	G3	G4	G5	G6	G7	G8	G9	G10	G1 % of before	G1–3 avg %
2026-01-08 → 2026-01-10	Left hip flexor; strain	2	26	15	31	30	37	27	33	32	28	29	34	59%	99%
2025-12-27 → 2026-01-05	Left hip flexor; strain	5	27	10	15	31	30	37	27	33	32	28	29	37%	69%

Minutes by season

Season	Team	G	MPG	Median	Std dev	<20 min	<28 min	B2B	Rested	Blowouts	Close
2026-27	UTA	2	23.0	23.0	1.4	0%	100%	–	22.0	24.0	22.0
2025-26	UTA	72	27.6	29.0	7.4	17%	38%	30.5	27.0	29.4	26.3

Season by season (per game)

Season	Team	G	GS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	3PM	PRA	+/-	FG%	3P%	FT%	Team SU	Team ATS
2025-26	UTA	72	61	27.6	13.8	4.2	1.8	0.8	0.7	1.5	1.9	19.8	-6.2	44.3	34.4	75	19-53	37-35
2026-27	UTA	2	1	23	9	6	2.5	0	1.5	1	1.5	17.5	-4	36.8	27.3	50	1-1	0-2
Career		74	62	27.4	13.7	4.2	1.8	0.8	0.7	1.5	1.9	19.7	-6.2	44.1	34.2	74.4	20-54	37-37

Prop hit rates

How often he reached each number (games played only). Green = 60%+, red = 40% or less. Books set prop lines near the median, so a hit rate alone is not an edge; compare it with the line you're offered.

Stat	Line	Last 10	Last 20	2026-27	2025-26	Career
PTS	10+	9/10 90%	17/20 85%	1/2 50%	51/72 71%	52/74 70%
PTS	15+	5/10 50%	12/20 60%	0/2 0%	32/72 44%	32/74 43%
PTS	20+	2/10 20%	7/20 35%	0/2 0%	16/72 22%	16/74 22%
PTS	25+	0/10 0%	4/20 20%	0/2 0%	5/72 7%	5/74 7%
PTS	30+	0/10 0%	3/20 15%	0/2 0%	3/72 4%	3/74 4%
REB	4+	7/10 70%	13/20 65%	2/2 100%	42/72 58%	44/74 59%
REB	6+	5/10 50%	9/20 45%	1/2 50%	21/72 29%	22/74 30%
REB	8+	1/10 10%	2/20 10%	0/2 0%	9/72 12%	9/74 12%
REB	10+	1/10 10%	1/20 5%	0/2 0%	2/72 3%	2/74 3%
AST	3+	2/10 20%	8/20 40%	1/2 50%	24/72 33%	25/74 34%
AST	5+	1/10 10%	1/20 5%	0/2 0%	1/72 1%	1/74 1%
3PM	1+	10/10 100%	20/20 100%	2/2 100%	55/72 76%	57/74 77%
3PM	2+	5/10 50%	13/20 65%	1/2 50%	40/72 56%	41/74 55%
3PM	3+	2/10 20%	8/20 40%	0/2 0%	22/72 31%	22/74 30%
3PM	4+	0/10 0%	6/20 30%	0/2 0%	9/72 12%	9/74 12%
3PM	5+	0/10 0%	5/20 25%	0/2 0%	5/72 7%	5/74 7%
PRA	20+	7/10 70%	14/20 70%	1/2 50%	37/72 51%	38/74 51%
PRA	25+	3/10 30%	8/20 40%	0/2 0%	20/72 28%	20/74 27%
PRA	30+	1/10 10%	5/20 25%	0/2 0%	7/72 10%	7/74 9%
PRA	35+	1/10 10%	4/20 20%	0/2 0%	4/72 6%	4/74 5%
PRA	40+	0/10 0%	2/20 10%	0/2 0%	2/72 3%	2/74 3%
STL	1+	2/10 20%	9/20 45%	0/2 0%	40/72 56%	40/74 54%
STL	2+	1/10 10%	5/20 25%	0/2 0%	15/72 21%	15/74 20%
BLK	1+	6/10 60%	13/20 65%	1/2 50%	31/72 43%	32/74 43%
BLK	2+	3/10 30%	6/20 30%	1/2 50%	11/72 15%	12/74 16%

Splits (per game)

Split	G	Team SU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	3PM
All games	74	20-54	27.4	13.7	4.2	1.8	0.8	0.7	1.5	1.9
Last 10	10	2-8	29.9	15.1	5.1	2.1	0.4	1.1	2.2	1.7
Last 20	20	4-16	29.6	18	4.8	2.3	0.8	1.2	2	2.9
2026-27	2	1-1	23	9	6	2.5	0	1.5	1	1.5
2025-26	72	19-53	27.6	13.8	4.2	1.8	0.8	0.7	1.5	1.9
Home	38	13-25	27.8	15.4	4.2	2.1	0.9	0.7	1.2	2.4
Away	36	7-29	27	11.8	4.3	1.6	0.7	0.8	1.7	1.3
Started	62	16-46	29.3	15.2	4.4	1.9	0.9	0.8	1.5	2.2
Off the bench	12	4-8	17.8	5.9	3.2	1.6	0.3	0.4	1.1	0.5
Team won	20	20-0	24.9	12.1	4.0	1.5	0.8	0.7	0.9	1.9
Team lost	54	0-54	28.4	14.3	4.3	2.0	0.8	0.7	1.7	1.9
Team favored	10	7-3	25.5	11	3.9	1.6	1.2	0.6	0.7	1.6
Team underdog	64	13-51	27.7	14.1	4.3	1.9	0.8	0.7	1.6	1.9
Back-to-back (2nd night)	13	6-7	30.5	18.1	4.8	1.8	1.2	1	2.2	2.9
1 day rest	43	5-38	28.1	13.4	4.2	2.0	0.7	0.7	1.4	1.7
2+ days rest	16	8-8	23.7	11.7	3.8	1.2	0.9	0.5	1.1	1.8

Vs every opponent (per game)

Opp	G	SU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	3PM
MEM	5	2-3	29.2	16	5.8	1.6	0.8	1.4	2	2
DEN	4	0-4	29	13.8	3.8	0.8	0.2	0	1	1.2
HOU	4	1-3	29.8	14.5	4.8	1.2	1	1	1.2	2
LAL	4	0-4	27.5	14.2	3.2	1.2	0.8	0.2	1.2	1.8
MIN	4	1-3	27.5	14.8	5	2	1.2	0.2	2.8	2.5
OKC	4	0-4	24	11	2	2.2	1.5	0.8	2	2
DAL	3	1-2	30.3	13.3	5	2.3	0.7	0.7	2.3	1.3
NOP	3	1-2	27	14	6.3	1.7	0.7	1.3	1.3	2
PHX	3	1-2	23.7	8.3	5	2	0.3	1	2.3	1
POR	3	0-3	19	10.3	4	2	0.3	0.7	1.7	1
SAC	3	2-1	20.3	6	3.3	2.3	0.3	0	0	1.3
ATL	2	0-2	36	20.5	5.5	2	2	0.5	1.5	3
BKN	2	1-1	27	8.5	2	0	1	0	0	1.5
CHI	2	1-1	20.5	7.5	2	1.5	0	0.5	0	0.5
CLE	2	1-1	25	11.5	2.5	3.5	0	0.5	0.5	1.5
DET	2	1-1	15	4.5	3	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0
GSW	2	0-2	31.5	20	5	3	1.5	1	1	3
IND	2	2-0	33	19.5	4	1	1.5	1.5	1	3
LAC	2	1-1	24.5	11	2.5	1	0	0	1	2
MIA	2	1-1	32.5	14	5	2	1	1	0	0
MIL	2	1-1	31.5	21	7.5	3.5	2.5	0.5	4	4
NYK	2	0-2	35	17	4.5	1.5	1	0.5	2	3.5
ORL	2	0-2	32.5	12	3.5	3	0.5	0	2.5	1.5
PHI	2	0-2	32	18.5	4.5	3.5	0.5	2.5	2.5	3
SAS	2	0-2	29.5	16.5	5	3	0	0.5	1.5	2
TOR	2	0-2	31	20.5	8.5	2.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	3.5
WAS	2	1-1	31	23.5	3.5	1.5	2	1.5	0.5	4
BOS	1	1-0	18	4	2	0	0	0	2	0
CHA	1	0-1	19	6	0	1	1	0	1	0

Team with him vs without him

Season	Team	MPG	With: G	W-L	ATS	Margin	Without: G	W-L	ATS	Margin
2025-26	UTA	27.6	72	19-53	37-35	-8.0	10	3-7	4-6	-11.7

Best on-court partners (2025-26+)

Minutes together and net rating per 100 possessions (pbpstats).

With	Season	Min	+/-	Net
Kyle Filipowski	2025-26	916	-176	-7.8
Keyonte George	2025-26	769	-184	-10.1
Cody Williams	2025-26	735	-253	-14.4
Isaiah Collier	2025-26	633	-121	-8.3
Brice Sensabaugh	2025-26	625	-190	-13.2
Jusuf Nurkic	2025-26	595	-181	-13.5
Lauri Markkanen	2025-26	581	-106	-9.4
Svi Mykhailiuk	2025-26	515	-80	-6.9
Walter Clayton Jr.	2025-26	334	-60	-8.7
John Konchar	2025-26	304	-104	-15.4
Elijah Harkless	2025-26	248	-51	-8.9
Bez Mbeng	2025-26	215	-57	-10.4
Kennedy Chandler	2025-26	180	-18	-2.1
Kevin Love	2025-26	174	-44	-10.7
Oscar Tshiebwe	2025-26	167	-38	-9.9

Teammates he wins with (both started)

Teammate	Team	G	W-L	ATS	Margin
Keyonte George	UTA	37	10-27	18-19	-8.6
Cody Williams	UTA	35	5-30	15-20	-10.3
Kyle Filipowski	UTA	33	5-28	15-18	-10.0
Jusuf Nurkic	UTA	27	9-18	16-11	-7.6
Lauri Markkanen	UTA	27	12-15	16-11	-4.3
Svi Mykhailiuk	UTA	26	8-18	13-13	-9.0

Injury history

Official NBA injury report entries (2021-22 onward) and whether he then played.

Game date	Team	Status	Reason	Played?	MIN	PTS
2026-04-07	UTA	Doubtful	Right Knee; Contusion	–	–	–
2026-03-18	UTA	Questionable	Concussion Protocol	Yes	25	17
2026-03-15	UTA	Out	Concussion Protocol	–	–	–
2026-03-09	UTA	Questionable	N/A; Illness	–	–	–
2026-01-12	UTA	Available	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	Yes	15	4
2026-01-10	UTA	Out	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	–	–	–
2026-01-08	UTA	Questionable	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	–	–	–
2026-01-07	UTA	Questionable	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	Yes	10	2
2026-01-05	UTA	Questionable	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	–	–	–
2026-01-03	UTA	Out	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	–	–	–
2026-01-01	UTA	Out	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	No	–	–
2025-12-30	UTA	Out	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	–	–	–
2025-12-27	UTA	Out	Left Hip Flexor; Strain	–	–	–
2025-10-22	UTA	Available	N/A; Illness	Yes	20	2

Games missed while on the roster (1)

Date	Team	Opp	Box score note	Team
2026-01-01	UTA	LAC	STRAINED LEFT HIP FLEXOR	L

Game log

Date	Opp	Score	SU	Line	ATS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	3PM	FGM	FGA	3PA	FTM	FTA	OREB	DREB	PF	+/-	PRA
2026-10-23	NOP	120-119	W	-1.5	L	22	6	7	2	0	0	1	1	2	8	6	1	2	1	6	2	-3	15
2026-10-21	@MEM	103-123	L	+1.5	L	24	12	5	3	0	3	1	2	5	11	5	0	0	2	3	3	-5	20
2026-04-12	@LAL	107-131	L	+14.5	L	29	15	3	1	0	1	3	1	7	21	9	0	2	2	1	4	-19	19
2026-04-10	MEM	147-101	W	-4.5	W	29	23	10	2	3	1	3	3	10	19	7	0	0	2	8	0	29	35
2026-04-05	@OKC	111-146	L	+24.5	L	33	14	4	2	1	2	3	2	6	14	6	0	0	1	3	2	-47	20
2026-04-03	@HOU	106-140	L	+18.5	L	33	22	6	1	0	1	2	2	9	17	8	2	3	0	6	4	-17	29
2026-04-01	DEN	117-130	L	+17.5	W	33	12	1	2	0	0	2	1	5	17	9	1	2	0	1	1	-15	15
2026-03-30	CLE	113-122	L	+16.5	W	35	19	2	5	0	0	1	3	8	15	6	0	0	0	2	3	-9	26
2026-03-28	@PHX	109-134	L	+17.5	L	34	13	6	2	0	3	4	1	5	15	3	2	3	1	5	1	-19	21
2026-03-27	@DEN	129-135	L	+19.5	W	27	15	7	1	0	0	2	1	7	14	7	0	0	1	6	5	-12	23
2026-03-25	WAS	110-133	L	-3.5	L	29	15	5	3	2	2	1	1	7	19	6	0	0	1	4	3	-8	23
2026-03-23	TOR	127-143	L	+8.5	L	35	37	6	3	0	2	0	7	11	21	10	8	8	1	5	3	-8	46
2026-03-21	PHI	116-126	L	+5.5	L	33	25	7	4	0	5	2	4	7	20	14	7	8	1	6	4	3	36
2026-03-19	MIL	128-96	W	+5.5	W	34	33	9	4	3	1	3	7	13	27	19	0	0	1	8	4	15	46
2026-03-18	@MIN	111-147	L	+12.5	L	25	17	2	2	0	1	3	5	6	13	10	0	0	0	2	4	-14	21
2026-03-13	@POR	114-124	L	+15.5	W	7	8	1	1	1	1	0	2	3	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	16	10
2026-03-11	NYK	117-134	L	+13.5	L	36	21	4	2	1	0	1	5	8	16	10	0	0	1	3	3	3	27
2026-03-07	@MIL	99-113	L	+9.5	L	29	9	6	3	2	0	5	1	4	13	9	0	0	1	5	6	-11	18
2026-03-05	@WAS	122-112	W	+3.5	W	33	32	2	0	2	1	0	7	12	19	11	1	2	0	2	2	8	34
2026-03-04	@PHI	102-106	L	+7.5	W	31	12	2	3	1	0	3	2	5	16	7	0	0	1	1	1	-4	17
2026-03-02	DEN	125-128	L	+11.5	W	32	18	4	0	1	0	0	2	6	14	5	4	4	2	2	5	-5	22
2026-02-28	NOP	105-115	L	+5.5	L	30	13	8	2	1	3	2	3	4	16	8	2	2	4	4	4	-4	23
2026-02-26	NOP	118-129	L	+6.5	L	29	23	4	1	1	1	1	2	9	17	6	3	3	1	3	5	-14	28
2026-02-23	@HOU	105-125	L	+13.5	L	27	4	8	0	2	0	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	3	5	0	-26	12
2026-02-20	@MEM	114-123	L	+2.5	L	33	20	6	3	0	1	3	2	8	19	9	2	3	3	3	3	-3	29
2026-02-12	POR	119-135	L	+6.5	L	35	15	8	3	0	0	4	1	7	15	5	0	0	3	5	2	-19	26
2026-02-11	SAC	121-93	W	-5.5	W	31	13	4	4	0	0	0	3	5	9	6	0	0	2	2	2	7	21
2026-02-09	@MIA	115-111	W	+5.5	W	37	16	8	2	1	0	0	0	7	14	3	2	2	3	5	4	3	26
2026-02-07	@ORL	117-120	L	+7.5	W	31	10	3	3	1	0	5	1	4	11	4	1	2	1	2	2	-13	16
2026-02-05	@ATL	119-121	L	+8.5	W	40	20	6	1	2	1	0	2	9	26	8	0	0	3	3	3	0	27
2026-02-03	@IND	131-122	W	-2.5	W	40	19	4	1	3	3	1	2	7	10	4	3	6	2	2	2	13	24
2026-02-01	@TOR	100-107	L	+10.5	W	27	4	11	2	1	1	3	0	1	10	2	2	2	1	10	5	-17	17
2026-01-30	BKN	99-109	L	-3.5	L	29	12	2	0	2	0	0	2	5	10	5	0	0	1	1	2	5	14
2026-01-28	GSW	124-140	L	+8.5	L	34	19	7	4	2	1	0	3	8	15	7	0	0	1	6	3	-14	30
2026-01-27	LAC	103-115	L	+8.5	L	29	20	1	0	0	0	1	4	8	16	9	0	0	0	1	1	-12	21
2026-01-24	MIA	116-147	L	+6.5	L	28	12	2	2	1	2	0	0	6	15	5	0	0	1	1	5	-23	16
2026-01-22	SAS	109-126	L	+12.5	L	32	25	6	2	0	0	2	2	11	16	3	1	1	4	2	3	-21	33
2026-01-20	MIN	127-122	W	+12.5	W	33	20	5	1	1	0	3	3	8	17	8	1	1	1	4	2	2	26
2026-01-19	@SAS	110-123	L	+16.5	W	27	8	4	4	0	1	1	2	3	6	3	0	0	2	2	4	-7	16
2026-01-17	@DAL	120-138	L	+3.5	L	37	18	8	1	0	0	3	2	8	16	6	0	0	2	6	4	-26	27
2026-01-15	@DAL	122-144	L	+2.5	L	30	15	5	3	2	2	3	1	6	15	5	2	2	3	2	4	-19	23
2026-01-14	@CHI	126-128	L	+5.5	W	31	10	3	3	0	0	0	0	4	9	3	2	2	2	1	1	12	16
2026-01-12	@CLE	123-112	W	+13.5	W	15	4	3	2	0	1	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	-1	9
2026-01-07	@OKC	125-129	L	+19.5	W	10	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	-2	3
2025-12-26	DET	131-129	W	+9.5	W	11	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	2
2025-12-23	MEM	128-137	L	+4.5	L	29	17	4	0	1	0	2	3	7	12	5	0	0	3	1	1	-8	21
2025-12-22	@DEN	112-135	L	+12.5	L	24	10	3	0	0	0	0	1	4	13	5	1	2	1	2	5	-23	13
2025-12-20	ORL	127-128	L	+7.5	W	34	14	4	3	0	0	0	2	6	14	7	0	0	2	2	1	0	21
2025-12-18	LAL	135-143	L	+9.5	W	26	19	4	0	1	0	1	3	7	13	6	2	6	2	2	2	-4	23
2025-12-15	DAL	140-133	W	+1.5	W	24	7	2	3	0	0	1	1	3	9	4	0	0	1	1	6	-2	12
2025-12-12	@MEM	130-126	W	+7.5	W	31	8	4	0	0	2	1	0	4	12	3	0	0	1	3	2	-1	12
2025-12-07	OKC	101-131	L	+11.5	L	32	13	1	4	1	1	3	3	5	14	8	0	0	0	1	2	-18	18
2025-12-05	@NYK	112-146	L	+16.5	L	34	13	5	1	1	1	3	2	5	13	6	1	3	1	4	3	-23	19
2025-12-04	@BKN	123-110	W	-5.5	W	25	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	0	2	4	12	7
2025-12-01	HOU	133-125	W	+11.5	W	28	13	3	3	2	3	1	3	5	11	8	0	0	0	3	4	7	19
2025-11-30	HOU	101-129	L	+11.5	L	31	19	2	1	0	0	2	3	8	12	5	0	0	1	1	3	2	22
2025-11-28	SAC	128-119	W	-2.5	W	17	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	2	5	2	0	0	0	4	2	1	11
2025-11-24	@GSW	117-134	L	+13.5	L	29	21	3	2	1	1	2	3	8	15	8	2	2	1	2	0	-11	26
2025-11-23	LAL	106-108	L	+9.5	W	32	10	5	3	1	0	0	2	4	10	7	0	0	1	4	3	14	18
2025-11-21	OKC	112-144	L	+16.5	L	21	15	2	3	3	0	2	3	6	9	5	0	0	1	1	1	3	20
2025-11-18	@LAL	126-140	L	+13.5	L	23	13	1	1	1	0	1	1	6	12	6	0	0	1	0	3	6	15
2025-11-16	CHI	150-147	W	+4.5	W	10	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	5	3	0	0	1	0	6	8	6
2025-11-13	ATL	122-132	L	+1.5	L	32	21	5	3	2	0	3	4	8	13	7	1	3	3	2	3	-18	29
2025-11-11	IND	152-128	W	+2.5	W	26	20	4	1	0	0	1	4	7	13	8	2	2	3	1	3	9	25
2025-11-10	MIN	113-120	L	+7.5	W	28	10	7	2	3	0	2	0	4	9	3	2	2	4	3	4	-16	19
2025-11-07	@MIN	97-137	L	+12.5	L	24	12	6	3	1	0	3	2	4	9	4	2	2	4	2	1	-19	21
2025-11-05	@DET	103-114	L	+9.5	L	19	9	4	1	0	0	1	0	3	6	0	3	4	3	1	5	-15	14
2025-11-03	@BOS	105-103	W	+10.5	W	18	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	1	1	3	11	6
2025-11-02	@CHA	103-126	L	-1.5	L	19	6	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	8	3	0	0	0	0	1	-17	7
2025-10-31	@PHX	96-118	L	+3.5	L	23	6	8	3	1	0	3	0	2	8	3	2	2	3	5	1	-15	17
2025-10-29	POR	134-136	L	+3.5	W	15	8	3	2	0	1	1	0	3	5	2	2	2	1	2	2	-17	13
2025-10-27	PHX	138-134	W	-1.5	W	14	6	1	1	0	0	0	2	2	9	5	0	0	1	0	1	-15	8
2025-10-24	@SAC	104-105	L	+6.5	W	13	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	1	1	1	-16	3
2025-10-22	LAC	129-108	W	+10.5	W	20	2	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	1	3	1	5	8