League-wide ATS and totals results against ESPN's listed lines. Line coverage varies by season (see the "Lines" column); games without a line count toward SU only. Small samples are noisy, so check G before trusting a percentage.
By season (home-team view)
Season
Games
Lines
Home win%
Home ATS
Home cover%
Fav win%
Fav ATS
Fav cover%
Over-Under
Over%
Pts/game
2016-17
1309
100%
58.3%
643-642-24
50.0%
66.9%
614-628-24
49.4%
665-628-16
51.4%
211.2
2017-18
1312
100%
58.7%
618-660-34
48.4%
68.7%
631-647-34
49.4%
626-671-15
48.3%
212.4
2018-19
1312
100%
59.1%
658-636-18
50.9%
67.1%
642-643-18
50.0%
647-647-18
50.0%
222.0
2019-20
1143
100%
54.7%
548-572-23
48.9%
66.4%
548-571-23
49.0%
588-545-10
51.9%
223.3
2020-21
1171
100%
54.7%
565-590-16
48.9%
65.7%
594-560-16
51.5%
585-576-10
50.4%
223.9
2021-22
1323
100%
54.8%
633-672-18
48.5%
68.1%
666-634-18
51.2%
651-655-17
49.8%
220.6
2022-23
1320
100%
58.1%
662-634-24
51.1%
66.0%
647-647-24
50.0%
659-644-17
50.6%
228.7
2023-24
1319
100%
54.7%
637-664-18
49.0%
68.6%
654-646-18
50.3%
647-656-16
49.7%
227.3
2024-25
1321
100%
54.5%
661-660
50.0%
69.0%
662-659
50.1%
694-627
52.5%
227.0
2025-26
1322
100%
55.5%
678-640
51.4%
68.5%
651-667
49.4%
653-664
49.6%
230.2
2026-27
36
100%
50.0%
13-23
36.1%
69.4%
18-18
50.0%
15-21
41.7%
230.2
Favorites by spread
Split
G
SU
Win%
ATS
Cover%
Avg ATS margin
O/U
Over%
PF
PA
Fav −0.5 to −2.5
2698
1441-1257
53.4%
1324-1352-22
49.5%
-0.6
1255-1417-25
47.0%
111.4
110.1
Fav −3 to −4.5
2775
1676-1099
60.4%
1375-1353-47
50.4%
-0.7
1380-1367-28
50.2%
112.6
109.5
Fav −5 to −6.5
2461
1653-808
67.2%
1216-1207-38
50.2%
-0.6
1219-1222-20
49.9%
113.3
108.1
Fav −7 to −9.5
2604
1959-645
75.2%
1297-1268-39
50.6%
+0.1
1332-1249-23
51.6%
115.8
107.5
Fav −10 to −12.5
1469
1192-277
81.1%
697-748-24
48.2%
-0.3
753-700-16
51.8%
117.6
106.8
Fav −13 to −30
815
738-77
90.6%
418-392-5
51.6%
+1.4
455-354-6
56.2%
122.1
105.8
Final margin frequency
Margin
Games
% of games
8
764
5.9%
7
754
5.9%
5
752
5.8%
6
741
5.7%
3
713
5.5%
4
703
5.5%
9
693
5.4%
2
645
5.0%
10
582
4.5%
11
554
4.3%
1
531
4.1%
12
506
3.9%
Situational (team view)
Split
G
SU
Win%
ATS
Cover%
Avg ATS margin
O/U
Over%
PF
PA
Back-to-back vs rested
3090
1315-1775
42.6%
1491-1553-46
49.0%
-0.3
1570-1486-33
51.4%
110.1
112.8
Both on back-to-back
1150
575-575
50.0%
565-565-20
50.0%
+0.0
588-552-10
51.6%
111.2
111.2
Rest advantage 2+ days
1244
718-526
57.7%
658-565-21
53.8%
+0.7
651-584-9
52.7%
113.1
110.5
After a 15+ pt loss
4043
1799-2244
44.5%
2050-1947-45
51.3%
+0.5
2069-1938-34
51.6%
110.8
112.9
After a 15+ pt win
4043
2332-1711
57.7%
2008-1976-58
50.4%
+0.0
2019-1992-31
50.3%
112.8
110.2
After an ATS loss
12695
6325-6370
49.8%
6276-6260-155
50.1%
+0.2
6367-6210-112
50.6%
111.5
111.5
Playoffs
1666
833-833
50.0%
824-824-10
50.0%
+0.0
808-832-18
49.3%
107.6
107.6
Play-in
74
37-37
50.0%
37-37
50.0%
+0.0
30-44
40.5%
110.6
110.6
Big favorites (10+)
2284
1930-354
84.5%
1115-1140-29
49.4%
+0.3
1208-1054-22
53.4%
119.2
106.4
Big dogs (10+)
2284
354-1930
15.5%
1140-1115-29
50.6%
-0.3
1208-1054-22
53.4%
106.4
119.2
Home dogs
4709
1643-3066
34.9%
2302-2334-73
49.7%
+0.4
2355-2319-35
50.4%
109.2
114.2
Road favorites
4709
3066-1643
65.1%
2334-2302-73
50.3%
-0.4
2355-2319-35
50.4%
114.2
109.2
2026-27 season
72
36-36
50.0%
36-36
50.0%
+0.0
30-42
41.7%
115.1
115.1
Totals by posted total (home-team view; Over% is what matters)
These 18 classic NBA angles were picked before looking at any results. Each was tested on 2016-17 to 2021-22 (in-sample) and on 2022-23 onward (out-of-sample), graded at the listed odds when ESPN has them and −110 otherwise. An angle qualifies only if it beats 52.4% (or makes money on the moneyline) in both halves, with 300+ and 100+ bets. Most angles don't qualify, which is what you'd expect against efficient lines. p = the chance of a record this good if the true win rate were break-even.
Angle
Market
In-sample
Win%
ROI
p
Out-of-sample
Win%
ROI
p
Result
Home underdogs
ATS
1287-1340-53
49.0%
-6.4%
1.000
1008-987-19
50.5%
-3.5%
0.954
No
Road favorites
ATS
1340-1287-53
51.0%
-2.6%
0.923
987-1008-19
49.5%
-5.5%
0.996
No
Underdogs of +10 or more
ATS
601-559-20
51.8%
-1.1%
0.662
539-556-9
49.2%
-6.0%
0.983
No
Favorites of −10 or more
ATS
559-601-20
48.2%
-7.9%
0.998
556-539-9
50.8%
-3.0%
0.863
No
Rested team vs opponent on 2nd night of a back-to-back
ATS
936-910-33
50.7%
-3.2%
0.929
617-581-13
51.5%
-1.7%
0.738
No
Team on 2nd night of a back-to-back (road)
ATS
747-760-30
49.6%
-5.2%
0.987
444-466-9
48.8%
-6.8%
0.986
No
Rest advantage of 2+ days
ATS
393-358-14
52.3%
-0.1%
0.526
265-207-7
56.1%
+7.0%
0.056
No
Underdogs after a loss of 15+
ATS
724-706-24
50.6%
-3.3%
0.912
588-552-4
51.6%
-1.4%
0.716
No
Fade teams that won by 15+ last game (bet opponent)
ATS
1149-1112-39
50.8%
-3.0%
0.934
827-896-19
48.0%
-8.3%
1.000
No
Playoff underdogs
ATS
220-272-5
44.7%
-14.5%
1.000
163-168-0
49.2%
-6.4%
0.884
No
Home teams after an ATS loss
ATS
1824-1906-63
48.9%
-6.6%
1.000
1292-1318-12
49.5%
-5.4%
0.998
No
Unders, playoff games
UNDER
252-238-8
51.4%
-1.8%
0.680
164-166-1
49.7%
-5.1%
0.849
No
Unders, either team on 2nd night of a back-to-back
UNDER
1051-1120-31
48.4%
-7.4%
1.000
714-746-7
48.9%
-6.5%
0.996
No
Unders, totals 10+ above the season average total
UNDER
502-489-16
50.7%
-3.2%
0.868
376-345-6
52.1%
-0.4%
0.564
No
Overs, totals 10+ below the season average total
OVER
508-445-6
53.3%
+1.7%
0.295
376-344-2
52.2%
-0.3%
0.549
No
Moneyline underdogs +300 or longer
ML
335-1564-0
17.6%
+2.1%
–
238-1168-0
16.9%
-9.0%
–
No
Home moneyline underdogs
ML
880-1659-0
34.7%
-2.6%
–
615-1260-0
32.8%
-8.0%
–
No
Moneyline favorites −400 or shorter
ML
1441-287-0
83.4%
-4.1%
–
1100-218-0
83.5%
-4.2%
–
No
Referees (150+ games) — totals and home-team tendency
Every game an official worked (crew chief or not), from ESPN game info. Sorted by Over%.