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NBA betting trends since 2016-17

League-wide ATS and totals results against ESPN's listed lines. Line coverage varies by season (see the "Lines" column); games without a line count toward SU only. Small samples are noisy, so check G before trusting a percentage.

By season (home-team view)

SeasonGamesLinesHome win%Home ATSHome cover%Fav win%Fav ATSFav cover%Over-UnderOver%Pts/game
2016-171309100%58.3%643-642-2450.0%66.9%614-628-2449.4%665-628-1651.4%211.2
2017-181312100%58.7%618-660-3448.4%68.7%631-647-3449.4%626-671-1548.3%212.4
2018-191312100%59.1%658-636-1850.9%67.1%642-643-1850.0%647-647-1850.0%222.0
2019-201143100%54.7%548-572-2348.9%66.4%548-571-2349.0%588-545-1051.9%223.3
2020-211171100%54.7%565-590-1648.9%65.7%594-560-1651.5%585-576-1050.4%223.9
2021-221323100%54.8%633-672-1848.5%68.1%666-634-1851.2%651-655-1749.8%220.6
2022-231320100%58.1%662-634-2451.1%66.0%647-647-2450.0%659-644-1750.6%228.7
2023-241319100%54.7%637-664-1849.0%68.6%654-646-1850.3%647-656-1649.7%227.3
2024-251321100%54.5%661-66050.0%69.0%662-65950.1%694-62752.5%227.0
2025-261322100%55.5%678-64051.4%68.5%651-66749.4%653-66449.6%230.2
2026-2736100%50.0%13-2336.1%69.4%18-1850.0%15-2141.7%230.2

Favorites by spread

SplitGSUWin%ATSCover%Avg ATS marginO/UOver%PFPA
Fav −0.5 to −2.526981441-125753.4%1324-1352-2249.5%-0.61255-1417-2547.0%111.4110.1
Fav −3 to −4.527751676-109960.4%1375-1353-4750.4%-0.71380-1367-2850.2%112.6109.5
Fav −5 to −6.524611653-80867.2%1216-1207-3850.2%-0.61219-1222-2049.9%113.3108.1
Fav −7 to −9.526041959-64575.2%1297-1268-3950.6%+0.11332-1249-2351.6%115.8107.5
Fav −10 to −12.514691192-27781.1%697-748-2448.2%-0.3753-700-1651.8%117.6106.8
Fav −13 to −30815738-7790.6%418-392-551.6%+1.4455-354-656.2%122.1105.8

Final margin frequency

MarginGames% of games
87645.9%
77545.9%
57525.8%
67415.7%
37135.5%
47035.5%
96935.4%
26455.0%
105824.5%
115544.3%
15314.1%
125063.9%

Situational (team view)

SplitGSUWin%ATSCover%Avg ATS marginO/UOver%PFPA
Back-to-back vs rested30901315-177542.6%1491-1553-4649.0%-0.31570-1486-3351.4%110.1112.8
Both on back-to-back1150575-57550.0%565-565-2050.0%+0.0588-552-1051.6%111.2111.2
Rest advantage 2+ days1244718-52657.7%658-565-2153.8%+0.7651-584-952.7%113.1110.5
After a 15+ pt loss40431799-224444.5%2050-1947-4551.3%+0.52069-1938-3451.6%110.8112.9
After a 15+ pt win40432332-171157.7%2008-1976-5850.4%+0.02019-1992-3150.3%112.8110.2
After an ATS loss126956325-637049.8%6276-6260-15550.1%+0.26367-6210-11250.6%111.5111.5
Playoffs1666833-83350.0%824-824-1050.0%+0.0808-832-1849.3%107.6107.6
Play-in7437-3750.0%37-3750.0%+0.030-4440.5%110.6110.6
Big favorites (10+)22841930-35484.5%1115-1140-2949.4%+0.31208-1054-2253.4%119.2106.4
Big dogs (10+)2284354-193015.5%1140-1115-2950.6%-0.31208-1054-2253.4%106.4119.2
Home dogs47091643-306634.9%2302-2334-7349.7%+0.42355-2319-3550.4%109.2114.2
Road favorites47093066-164365.1%2334-2302-7350.3%-0.42355-2319-3550.4%114.2109.2
2026-27 season7236-3650.0%36-3650.0%+0.030-4241.7%115.1115.1

Totals by posted total (home-team view; Over% is what matters)

SplitGSUWin%ATSCover%Avg ATS marginO/UOver%PFPA
Total 0–205758439-31957.9%361-375-2249.0%-0.3395-359-452.4%101.999.4
Total 205–21523631355-100857.3%1152-1176-3549.5%-0.11155-1185-2349.4%106.5104.0
Total 215–22543592449-191056.2%2142-2155-6249.8%-0.02183-2128-4850.6%111.3109.1
Total 225–23538712170-170156.1%1907-1922-4249.8%-0.01949-1891-3150.8%116.1114.0
Total 235–2451384762-62255.1%685-687-1249.9%-0.2673-699-1249.1%120.3118.5
Total 245–30014882-6655.4%69-77-247.3%+0.375-72-151.0%125.7123.9
TeamGSUATSCover%ATS marginO/UOver%
DET22-02-0100.0%+12.02-0100.0%
HOU33-03-0100.0%+7.52-166.7%
LAC21-12-0100.0%+10.01-150.0%
MEM22-02-0100.0%+13.00-20.0%
MIN22-02-0100.0%+25.00-20.0%
OKC22-02-0100.0%+7.50-20.0%
TOR22-02-0100.0%+16.50-20.0%
ATL32-12-166.7%+16.22-166.7%
CHA32-12-166.7%-9.80-30.0%
NOP30-32-166.7%+1.83-0100.0%
PHI33-02-166.7%+4.81-233.3%
WAS32-12-166.7%+4.21-233.3%
BKN20-21-150.0%+1.01-150.0%
BOS21-11-150.0%-4.01-150.0%
IND21-11-150.0%-11.51-150.0%
LAL22-01-150.0%+7.51-150.0%
POR22-01-150.0%+18.01-150.0%
SAC20-21-150.0%-9.01-150.0%
CHI31-21-233.3%-9.81-233.3%
DAL31-21-233.3%+4.51-233.3%
GSW30-31-233.3%-7.51-233.3%
MIL30-31-233.3%-4.83-0100.0%
SAS31-21-233.3%-5.80-30.0%
CLE21-10-20.0%-6.51-150.0%
DEN21-10-20.0%-5.01-150.0%
MIA30-30-30.0%-16.81-233.3%
NYK20-20-20.0%-6.00-20.0%
ORL20-20-20.0%-16.51-150.0%
PHX21-10-20.0%-19.01-150.0%
UTA21-10-20.0%-9.51-150.0%

Pre-registered angles: tested once, in two halves

These 18 classic NBA angles were picked before looking at any results. Each was tested on 2016-17 to 2021-22 (in-sample) and on 2022-23 onward (out-of-sample), graded at the listed odds when ESPN has them and −110 otherwise. An angle qualifies only if it beats 52.4% (or makes money on the moneyline) in both halves, with 300+ and 100+ bets. Most angles don't qualify, which is what you'd expect against efficient lines. p = the chance of a record this good if the true win rate were break-even.

AngleMarketIn-sampleWin%ROIpOut-of-sampleWin%ROIpResult
Home underdogsATS1287-1340-5349.0%-6.4%1.0001008-987-1950.5%-3.5%0.954No
Road favoritesATS1340-1287-5351.0%-2.6%0.923987-1008-1949.5%-5.5%0.996No
Underdogs of +10 or moreATS601-559-2051.8%-1.1%0.662539-556-949.2%-6.0%0.983No
Favorites of −10 or moreATS559-601-2048.2%-7.9%0.998556-539-950.8%-3.0%0.863No
Rested team vs opponent on 2nd night of a back-to-backATS936-910-3350.7%-3.2%0.929617-581-1351.5%-1.7%0.738No
Team on 2nd night of a back-to-back (road)ATS747-760-3049.6%-5.2%0.987444-466-948.8%-6.8%0.986No
Rest advantage of 2+ daysATS393-358-1452.3%-0.1%0.526265-207-756.1%+7.0%0.056No
Underdogs after a loss of 15+ATS724-706-2450.6%-3.3%0.912588-552-451.6%-1.4%0.716No
Fade teams that won by 15+ last game (bet opponent)ATS1149-1112-3950.8%-3.0%0.934827-896-1948.0%-8.3%1.000No
Playoff underdogsATS220-272-544.7%-14.5%1.000163-168-049.2%-6.4%0.884No
Home teams after an ATS lossATS1824-1906-6348.9%-6.6%1.0001292-1318-1249.5%-5.4%0.998No
Unders, playoff gamesUNDER252-238-851.4%-1.8%0.680164-166-149.7%-5.1%0.849No
Unders, either team on 2nd night of a back-to-backUNDER1051-1120-3148.4%-7.4%1.000714-746-748.9%-6.5%0.996No
Unders, totals 10+ above the season average totalUNDER502-489-1650.7%-3.2%0.868376-345-652.1%-0.4%0.564No
Overs, totals 10+ below the season average totalOVER508-445-653.3%+1.7%0.295376-344-252.2%-0.3%0.549No
Moneyline underdogs +300 or longerML335-1564-017.6%+2.1%–238-1168-016.9%-9.0%–No
Home moneyline underdogsML880-1659-034.7%-2.6%–615-1260-032.8%-8.0%–No
Moneyline favorites −400 or shorterML1441-287-083.4%-4.1%–1100-218-083.5%-4.2%–No

Referees (150+ games) — totals and home-team tendency

Every game an official worked (crew chief or not), from ESPN game info. Sorted by Over%.

OfficialGLast seasonO/UOver%Pts/gameFTA/gameHome SUHome ATSHome cover%
Leroy Richardson2392020-21140-94-559.8%218.545.8137-102109-121-947.4%
Danielle Scott1952025-26112-80-258.3%228.942.9106-8987-106-245.1%
Mitchell Ervin6152026-27344-268-356.2%225.747.9344-271298-310-749.0%
Andy Nagy3432026-27191-151-155.8%228.045.6175-168164-176-348.2%
CJ Washington4432026-27240-199-454.7%224.746.5229-214206-233-446.9%
Jason Goldenberg4192026-27227-188-454.7%225.646.0250-169213-200-651.6%
Matt Kallio1752026-2794-79-254.3%230.445.198-7785-87-349.4%
Evan Scott2962026-27157-135-453.8%227.044.4167-129154-139-352.6%
Jacyn Goble5802025-26309-266-553.7%225.146.9336-244297-280-351.5%
Sean Wright6662026-27354-307-553.6%223.346.8370-296329-329-850.0%
Che Flores1592026-2785-7453.5%228.945.676-8373-85-146.2%
Ben Taylor5912026-27309-275-752.9%223.746.1349-242285-292-1449.4%
Suyash Mehta2572026-27136-12152.9%228.146.1139-118132-123-251.8%
Scott Foster6922026-27362-324-652.8%222.946.3417-275366-322-453.2%
Kane Fitzgerald3912021-22203-182-652.7%218.846.8245-146207-174-1054.3%
Dedric Taylor5582026-27290-262-652.5%223.046.3322-236259-289-1047.3%
J.B. DeRosa4132026-27215-195-352.4%226.646.0243-170207-202-450.6%
Jonathan Sterling4022026-27209-190-352.4%225.144.8242-160209-191-252.2%
Tony Brothers7042026-27364-331-952.4%222.346.1427-277360-337-751.6%
Sean Corbin5352026-27278-255-252.2%222.944.7307-228269-262-450.7%
Kevin Scott6362026-27329-302-552.1%223.044.3352-284307-315-1449.4%
Eric Lewis4962026-27255-236-551.9%220.446.7291-205237-251-848.6%
Karl Lane6462026-27332-308-651.9%223.245.3372-274320-318-850.2%
Phenizee Ransom3762026-27193-179-451.9%226.645.3185-191161-214-142.9%
Tre Maddox5482026-27282-262-451.8%223.045.2315-233287-252-953.2%
John Conley2102025-26108-101-151.7%226.545.0113-97109-100-152.2%
Robert Hussey1952026-2799-93-351.6%227.844.7116-79104-89-253.9%
Mark Lindsay6082026-27311-293-451.5%222.445.4336-272291-310-748.4%
James Williams6992026-27356-337-651.4%223.044.6408-291354-336-951.3%
Lauren Holtkamp2592023-24132-125-251.4%220.744.6147-112131-123-551.6%
Marc Davis7362026-27377-356-351.4%222.244.2398-338339-388-946.6%
Tyler Ford6642026-27339-320-551.4%223.246.7375-289318-335-1148.7%
Brent Barnaky6442026-27327-310-751.3%222.344.9343-301306-331-748.0%
Mousa Dagher3582026-27181-172-551.3%226.745.3182-176170-182-648.3%
Bennie Adams1982021-22101-9751.0%214.244.8103-9593-101-447.9%
Gediminas Petraitis6422026-27325-313-450.9%224.145.4350-292315-320-749.6%
Matt Myers3362026-27169-164-350.8%228.345.5194-142170-163-351.1%
Ashley Moyer-Gleich2842026-27143-139-250.7%225.945.0153-131134-144-648.2%
Brett Nansel4292026-27217-211-150.7%223.545.4254-175215-208-650.8%
Tony Brown2992020-21150-146-350.7%218.046.7173-126148-146-550.3%
Brandon Schwab2412026-27121-118-250.6%226.744.8129-112132-108-155.0%
James Capers6392026-27318-310-1150.6%220.245.3387-252332-297-1052.8%
Marat Kogut5772026-27290-283-350.6%222.646.1303-274279-291-748.9%
Derek Richardson3922024-25195-193-450.3%222.343.7215-177188-196-849.0%
David Guthrie5782025-26286-284-850.2%221.945.3309-269269-302-747.1%
Pat Fraher6512026-27325-322-450.2%221.646.1357-294318-328-549.2%
Ray Acosta5382026-27267-266-450.1%224.345.4299-239256-274-848.3%
Zach Zarba7292026-27360-365-449.7%222.544.2400-329340-384-547.0%
Nick Buchert6322026-27310-315-749.6%222.745.7356-276286-332-1446.3%
Haywoode Workman2082020-21102-104-249.5%219.245.8118-90106-100-251.5%
Mark Ayotte2892020-21141-144-449.5%218.645.7183-106176-111-261.3%
Josh Tiven7342026-27359-368-749.4%221.945.4408-326347-381-647.7%
Scott Twardoski5482026-27267-273-849.4%223.345.3318-230274-265-950.8%
Michael Smith5302026-27258-265-749.3%222.345.9315-215273-250-752.2%
Derrick Collins5242026-27255-263-649.2%221.744.1302-222253-264-748.9%
John Butler3572026-27175-181-149.2%225.344.7196-161171-180-648.7%
John Goble6602026-27322-332-649.2%221.245.0378-282342-311-752.4%
Kevin Cutler5952026-27291-300-449.2%223.144.1324-271293-293-950.0%
Ed Malloy6302026-27307-318-549.1%222.644.3366-264325-294-1152.5%
Jenna Schroeder2782026-27136-141-149.1%226.244.4146-132134-141-348.7%
Bill Kennedy5312026-27257-269-548.9%221.345.0299-232266-256-951.0%
Scott Wall3742023-24182-190-248.9%220.044.8203-171186-185-350.1%
Curtis Blair6412026-27312-327-248.8%221.644.0358-283284-349-844.9%
Natalie Sago4292026-27207-218-448.7%225.645.4228-201215-205-951.2%
Ron Garretson1852018-1988-93-448.6%213.442.1104-8193-88-451.4%
Tom Washington4522024-25216-228-848.6%219.644.1278-174239-206-753.7%
Ken Mauer3132020-21148-160-548.1%216.745.9177-136147-162-447.6%
Matt Boland4472024-25211-231-547.7%220.245.1236-211187-250-1042.8%
Rodney Mott5332026-27250-274-947.7%221.244.9299-234261-268-449.3%
Jason Phillips1502018-1970-77-347.6%217.145.793-5777-69-452.7%
Mike Callahan2212018-19105-11647.5%213.543.6133-88111-103-751.9%
J.T. Orr4922026-27231-258-347.2%222.145.1278-214240-248-449.2%
Nate Green2632026-27121-139-346.5%226.644.1147-116125-13847.5%
Courtney Kirkland6542026-27299-345-1046.4%220.345.1358-296311-333-1048.3%
Leon Wood4192026-27188-225-645.5%221.844.9224-195198-217-447.7%
Eric Dalen5182026-27232-281-545.2%221.443.7295-223251-255-1249.6%
Brian Forte6592026-27291-359-944.8%220.744.8360-299324-323-1250.1%
Aaron Smith4942026-27219-273-244.5%221.344.0300-194259-227-853.3%
Justin Van Duyne6022026-27262-336-443.8%221.044.1346-256289-306-748.6%
Brandon Adair3622026-27154-206-242.8%221.943.4188-174166-190-646.6%