NHL betting angles — tested out of sample
13 pre-defined angles were graded at closing prices on 2018-19 through 2021-22 (in-sample) and then, unchanged, on 2022-23 to date (out-of-sample). An angle qualifies only if it shows a profit at the actual closing odds in both periods with at least 300 / 100 bets. Most don't — that's the point. 0 of 13 qualified.
No upcoming games match a qualifying angle right now.
Every angle tested
| Angle | Market | In-sample W-L-P | Win% | ROI | Out-of-sample W-L-P | Win% | ROI | Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rested team vs opponent on 2nd night of a back-to-back | ml | 86-75-0 | 53.4% | -6.8% | 358-239-0 | 60.0% | +4.3% | no |
| Home moneyline underdogs | ml | 80-96-0 | 45.5% | +1.6% | 414-531-0 | 43.8% | +1.5% | no |
| Underdogs after a loss by 3+ goals | ml | 65-105-0 | 38.2% | -7.9% | 269-367-0 | 42.3% | +0.3% | no |
| Moneyline favorites −250 or shorter | ml | 32-11-0 | 74.4% | -1.0% | 217-68-0 | 76.1% | -0.1% | no |
| Puck line underdogs (+1.5) | ats | 2216-1326-0 | 62.6% | -3.2% | 3598-2111-0 | 63.0% | -3.1% | no |
| Unders, totals of 6.5 or higher | under | 112-90-0 | 55.4% | +6.0% | 823-757-3 | 52.1% | -3.9% | no |
| Overs, totals of 5.5 or lower | over | 1681-1435-2 | 53.9% | -4.2% | 2323-1836-4 | 55.9% | -5.1% | no |
| Road moneyline favorites | ml | 143-124-0 | 53.6% | -5.2% | 694-573-0 | 54.8% | -6.5% | no |
| Unders, postseason games | under | 166-152-1 | 52.2% | -1.5% | 162-179-1 | 47.5% | -7.4% | no |
| Home puck line favorites (−1.5) | ats | 857-1380-0 | 38.3% | -6.2% | 1355-2290-0 | 37.2% | -9.2% | no |
| Postseason underdogs | ml | 14-10-0 | 58.3% | +30.6% | 82-124-0 | 39.8% | -10.1% | no |
| Team on 2nd night of a back-to-back (road) | ml | 87-85-0 | 50.6% | +10.8% | 222-358-0 | 38.3% | -16.1% | no |
| Moneyline underdogs +200 or longer | ml | 16-41-0 | 28.1% | -11.5% | 77-236-0 | 24.6% | -17.2% | no |
Odds come from ESPN-listed closing lines and prices (spreads/totals without a listed price are graded at −110; run/puck lines without a price are excluded). Where a game had no posted price it is excluded. Passing both halves lowers the odds that an angle is pure noise; it does not prove an edge, and books adjust.