NHL betting trends since 2016-17
League-wide results against closing lines. Each game counts twice in the split table (once per team), so "Home" and "Away" mirror each other. Records are what happened, not what will happen.
By season (home-team view)
| Season | G | Home win% | Home Puck line | Favorite Puck line | O/U | Avg total scored | Avg closing total | Games with line |
|---|
| 2016-17 | 1317 | 55.8% | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5.51 | – | 0 |
| 2017-18 | 1355 | 55.8% | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5.94 | – | 0 |
| 2018-19 | 1358 | 53.5% | 6-12 33.3% | 7-11 38.9% | 10-7-1 58.8% over | 6.00 | 5.36 | 18 |
| 2019-20 | 1212 | 52.5% | 526-684 43.5% | 413-795 34.2% | 594-587-28 50.3% over | 5.98 | 5.76 | 1210 |
| 2020-21 | 952 | 53.5% | 487-464 51.2% | 355-596 37.3% | 485-463 51.2% over | 5.84 | 5.50 | 951 |
| 2021-22 | 1401 | 54.1% | 653-712 47.8% | 551-814 40.4% | 812-587 58.0% over | 6.29 | 5.50 | 1365 |
| 2022-23 | 1400 | 52.0% | 627-737 46.0% | 531-833 38.9% | 836-564 59.7% over | 6.35 | 5.50 | 1364 |
| 2023-24 | 1400 | 53.7% | 638-740 46.3% | 508-870 36.9% | 777-612-9 55.9% over | 6.19 | 5.55 | 1378 |
| 2024-25 | 1398 | 56.5% | 701-697 50.1% | 551-847 39.4% | 680-718 48.6% over | 6.09 | 5.96 | 1398 |
| 2025-26 | 1394 | 51.9% | 623-768 44.8% | 451-940 32.4% | 706-685 50.8% over | 6.23 | 6.07 | 1391 |
| 2026-27 | 179 | 59.2% | 77-102 43.0% | 70-109 39.1% | 90-89 50.3% over | 6.31 | 6.17 | 179 |
Situational splits (all teams)
| Split | G | SU | Win% | Puck line | Cover% | Avg Puck line margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA | ML ROI |
|---|
| All games | 26732 | 13366-13366 | 50.0% | 9254-9254 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 9980-8624-76 | 53.6% | 3.03 | 3.03 | -4.0% |
| Regular season | 24922 | 12461-12461 | 50.0% | 8593-8593 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 9318-7968-72 | 53.9% | 3.04 | 3.04 | -3.9% |
| Postseason | 1810 | 905-905 | 50.0% | 661-661 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 662-656-4 | 50.2% | 2.89 | 2.89 | -5.7% |
| Home | 13251 | 7167-6084 | 54.1% | 4293-4862 | 46.9% | -0.21 | 4945-4257-38 | 53.7% | 3.16 | 2.90 | -3.1% |
| Away | 13251 | 6084-7167 | 45.9% | 4862-4293 | 53.1% | +0.21 | 4945-4257-38 | 53.7% | 2.90 | 3.16 | -4.9% |
| Neutral site | 230 | 115-115 | 50.0% | 99-99 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 90-110 | 45.0% | 2.90 | 2.90 | -9.2% |
| Favorite | 9252 | 5492-3760 | 59.4% | 3437-5815 | 37.1% | -0.95 | 4931-4275-38 | 53.6% | 3.35 | 2.80 | -6.0% |
| Underdog | 9252 | 3760-5492 | 40.6% | 5815-3437 | 62.9% | +0.95 | 4931-4275-38 | 53.6% | 2.80 | 3.35 | -2.0% |
| Fav by 1.5+ | 9252 | 5492-3760 | 59.4% | 3437-5815 | 37.1% | -0.95 | 4931-4275-38 | 53.6% | 3.35 | 2.80 | -6.0% |
| Dog by 1.5+ | 9252 | 3760-5492 | 40.6% | 5815-3437 | 62.9% | +0.95 | 4931-4275-38 | 53.6% | 2.80 | 3.35 | -2.0% |
| Home favorite | 5936 | 3563-2373 | 60.0% | 2229-3707 | 37.6% | -0.90 | 3164-2742-23 | 53.6% | 3.38 | 2.78 | -5.1% |
| Home underdog | 3316 | 1387-1929 | 41.8% | 2108-1208 | 63.6% | +1.03 | 1767-1533-15 | 53.5% | 2.84 | 3.31 | +1.3% |
| Road favorite | 3316 | 1929-1387 | 58.2% | 1208-2108 | 36.4% | -1.03 | 1767-1533-15 | 53.5% | 3.31 | 2.84 | -7.8% |
| Road underdog | 5936 | 2373-3563 | 40.0% | 3707-2229 | 62.4% | +0.90 | 3164-2742-23 | 53.6% | 2.78 | 3.38 | -3.7% |
| After a win | 13350 | 6847-6503 | 51.3% | 4576-4670 | 49.5% | -0.07 | 4937-4360-36 | 53.1% | 3.06 | 2.98 | -4.2% |
| After a loss | 13349 | 6500-6849 | 48.7% | 4676-4584 | 50.5% | +0.07 | 5041-4264-40 | 54.2% | 3.00 | 3.08 | -3.9% |
| After puck line cover | 9336 | 4576-4760 | 49.0% | 4667-4570 | 50.5% | +0.03 | 4940-4343-38 | 53.2% | 3.05 | 3.09 | -4.1% |
| After puck line loss | 9339 | 4764-4575 | 51.0% | 4569-4669 | 49.5% | -0.03 | 5020-4268-38 | 54.0% | 3.11 | 3.07 | -3.9% |
| Rest advantage | 6045 | 3265-2780 | 54.0% | 2053-2019 | 50.4% | +0.01 | 2201-1900-15 | 53.7% | 3.13 | 2.94 | -1.0% |
| Rest disadvantage | 6045 | 2780-3265 | 46.0% | 2019-2053 | 49.6% | -0.01 | 2201-1900-15 | 53.7% | 2.94 | 3.13 | -7.9% |
| 2nd night of back-to-back | 4049 | 1806-2243 | 44.6% | 1346-1391 | 49.2% | -0.02 | 1453-1304-13 | 52.7% | 2.87 | 3.15 | -7.9% |
| Opponent on back-to-back | 4049 | 2243-1806 | 55.4% | 1391-1346 | 50.8% | +0.02 | 1453-1304-13 | 52.7% | 3.15 | 2.87 | +0.0% |
| Total 6.5+ | 3570 | 1785-1785 | 50.0% | 1784-1784 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 1694-1870-6 | 47.5% | 3.18 | 3.18 | -3.6% |
| Total 5.5 or less | 14562 | 7281-7281 | 50.0% | 7188-7188 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 8008-6542-12 | 55.0% | 3.05 | 3.05 | -4.6% |
| Went to OT/SO | 6016 | 3008-3008 | 50.0% | 2079-2079 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 2182-2006-6 | 52.1% | 3.06 | 3.06 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline dog +150 or more | 1206 | 401-805 | 33.3% | 685-520 | 56.8% | +0.51 | 593-599-14 | 49.7% | 2.58 | 3.59 | -6.3% |
Moneyline price buckets
Win rate vs the win rate the closing price implied (with the bookmaker margin still in it) and flat-stake ROI. Positive ROI in a bucket over a long run is rare; check it holds across seasons before trusting it.
| Price | Bets | W-L | Win% | Implied% | ROI |
|---|
| Fav −300 or shorter | 130 | 106-24 | 81.5% | 80.3% | +1.4% |
| Fav −300 to −201 | 536 | 367-169 | 68.5% | 70.4% | -2.8% |
| Fav −200 to −151 | 1155 | 671-484 | 58.1% | 63.4% | -8.4% |
| Fav −150 to −101 | 2453 | 1298-1155 | 52.9% | 55.5% | -4.8% |
| Dog +100 to +149 | 2240 | 1017-1223 | 45.4% | 45.6% | -0.4% |
| Dog +150 to +199 | 836 | 308-528 | 36.8% | 37.5% | -1.9% |
| Dog +200 to +299 | 319 | 90-229 | 28.2% | 30.3% | -7.2% |
| Dog +300 or longer | 51 | 3-48 | 5.9% | 18.5% | -73.3% |