Soccer betting angles — tested out of sample
27 pre-defined angles were graded at closing prices on 2016-17 through 2021-22 (in-sample) and then, unchanged, on 2022-23 to date (out-of-sample). An angle qualifies only if it shows a profit at the actual closing odds in both periods with at least 300 / 100 bets. Most don't — that's the point. 0 of 27 qualified.
No upcoming games match a qualifying angle right now.
Every angle tested
| Angle | Market | In-sample W-L-P | Win% | ROI | Out-of-sample W-L-P | Win% | ROI | Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap: underdogs after a loss by 3+ goals | ats | 330-292-28 | 53.1% | -1.5% | 450-384-30 | 54.0% | +1.5% | no |
| Over 2.5 goals, Bundesliga | over | 558-360-0 | 60.8% | -1.5% | 798-487-0 | 62.1% | +0.6% | no |
| Favorites −250 or shorter to win | ml | 1584-453-0 | 77.8% | -1.7% | 1062-285-0 | 78.8% | +0.1% | no |
| Asian handicap: fade teams that won by 3+ goals (bet opponent) | ats | 562-524-93 | 51.7% | +0.7% | 775-735-91 | 51.3% | -0.3% | no |
| Over 2.5 goals, Ligue 1 | over | 529-510-0 | 50.9% | -0.6% | 749-618-0 | 54.8% | -1.3% | no |
| Asian handicap: away underdogs | ats | 2189-1954-153 | 52.8% | -0.2% | 3169-2912-202 | 52.1% | -2.1% | no |
| Away win, away team favored | ml | 1340-780-0 | 63.2% | +0.5% | 945-634-0 | 59.8% | -2.4% | no |
| Over 2.5 goals, Premier League | over | 791-751-43 | 51.3% | -4.6% | 909-691-0 | 56.8% | -2.4% | no |
| Under 2.5 goals, Serie A | under | 474-666-0 | 41.6% | -7.4% | 836-763-0 | 52.3% | -2.5% | no |
| Draw, closely matched sides (both teams +150 or longer) | draw | 812-1760-0 | 31.6% | +2.7% | 478-1132-0 | 29.7% | -2.6% | no |
| Over 2.5 goals, La Liga | over | 509-631-0 | 44.6% | -5.9% | 779-832-0 | 48.4% | -3.0% | no |
| Over 2.5 goals, Champions League | over | 306-234-32 | 56.7% | -2.5% | 351-324-0 | 52.0% | -3.2% | no |
| Over 2.5 goals, Championship | over | 757-899-0 | 45.7% | -4.6% | 1135-1210-0 | 48.4% | -3.5% | no |
| Draw, every match | draw | 4233-12711-0 | 25.0% | -4.3% | 3281-9745-0 | 25.2% | -3.8% | no |
| Over 2.5 goals, Serie A | over | 666-474-0 | 58.4% | +1.5% | 763-836-0 | 47.7% | -3.8% | no |
| Under 2.5 goals, Championship | under | 899-757-0 | 54.3% | -1.4% | 1210-1135-0 | 51.6% | -4.2% | no |
| Asian handicap: home underdogs | ats | 1093-1028-84 | 51.5% | -5.0% | 1460-1372-77 | 51.6% | -4.6% | no |
| Over 2.5 goals, MLS | over | 642-631-181 | 50.4% | -5.4% | 1144-1200-55 | 48.8% | -5.4% | no |
| Under 2.5 goals, Premier League | under | 751-791-43 | 48.7% | -1.0% | 691-909-0 | 43.2% | -5.4% | no |
| Under 2.5 goals, La Liga | under | 631-509-0 | 55.4% | +0.9% | 832-779-0 | 51.6% | -5.4% | no |
| Under 2.5 goals, Ligue 1 | under | 510-529-0 | 49.1% | -6.3% | 618-749-0 | 45.2% | -6.8% | no |
| Under 2.5 goals, MLS | under | 631-642-181 | 49.6% | -1.8% | 1200-1144-55 | 51.2% | -6.9% | no |
| Asian handicap: big favorites (−1.5 or more) | ats | 382-442-31 | 46.4% | -9.3% | 554-596-37 | 48.2% | -7.9% | no |
| Under 2.5 goals, Champions League | under | 234-306-32 | 43.3% | -7.1% | 324-351-0 | 48.0% | -9.4% | no |
| Home win, home team is the underdog (+200 or longer) | ml | 945-3287-0 | 22.3% | -3.7% | 675-2383-0 | 22.1% | -10.6% | no |
| Under 2.5 goals, Bundesliga | under | 360-558-0 | 39.2% | -8.4% | 487-798-0 | 37.9% | -11.2% | no |
| Longshots +500 or longer to win | ml | 449-3671-0 | 10.9% | -5.1% | 246-2316-0 | 9.6% | -23.8% | no |
Odds come from football-data.co.uk closing prices (Pinnacle where available, else market average/Bet365) for soccer; ESPN-listed closing lines and prices for other sports. Where a game had no posted price it is excluded. Passing both halves lowers the odds that an angle is pure noise; it does not prove an edge, and books adjust.