Soccer betting trends since 2016-17
League-wide results against closing lines. Each game counts twice in the split table (once per team), so "Home" and "Away" mirror each other. Records are what happened, not what will happen.
By season (home-team view)
| Season | G | Home win% | Draw% | Home Asian handicap | Favorite Asian handicap | O/U | Avg total scored | Avg closing total | Games with line |
|---|
| 2016-17 | 2958 | 48.5% | 24.5% | 0-0-2958 | 0-0 | 381-324 54.0% over | 2.79 | 2.50 | 0 |
| 2017-18 | 2998 | 46.2% | 24.6% | 0-0-2998 | 0-0 | 406-331-48 55.1% over | 2.72 | 2.60 | 0 |
| 2018-19 | 3012 | 45.7% | 25.9% | 0-0-3012 | 0-0 | 373-320-71 53.8% over | 2.79 | 2.76 | 0 |
| 2019-20 | 2914 | 44.8% | 24.3% | 1088-1184-642 47.9% | 947-1094-82 46.4% | 1475-1303-62 53.1% over | 2.82 | 2.56 | 2446 |
| 2020-21 | 2832 | 41.1% | 24.9% | 1137-1183-512 49.0% | 1021-1070-73 48.8% | 1377-1364-39 50.2% over | 2.72 | 2.54 | 2502 |
| 2021-22 | 2981 | 43.9% | 25.7% | 1144-1178-659 49.3% | 1014-1118-82 47.6% | 1486-1435-47 50.9% over | 2.76 | 2.53 | 2501 |
| 2022-23 | 2982 | 45.5% | 24.8% | 1177-1167-638 50.2% | 1009-1107-65 47.7% | 1480-1435-48 50.8% over | 2.74 | 2.53 | 2486 |
| 2023-24 | 2956 | 44.5% | 26.1% | 1101-1179-676 48.3% | 1022-1073-68 48.8% | 1499-1409-14 51.5% over | 2.83 | 2.64 | 2426 |
| 2024-25 | 3021 | 43.8% | 24.8% | 1119-1233-669 47.6% | 1032-1137-63 47.6% | 1527-1460 51.1% over | 2.84 | 2.62 | 2489 |
| 2025-26 | 3038 | 44.0% | 25.1% | 1152-1160-726 49.8% | 990-1090-73 47.6% | 1569-1462 51.8% over | 2.82 | 2.60 | 2475 |
| 2026-27 | 1054 | 45.4% | 25.0% | 263-235-556 52.8% | 231-222-10 51.0% | 586-467 55.7% over | 3.17 | 2.81 | 532 |
Situational splits (all teams)
| Split | G | W-D-L | Win% | Asian handicap | Cover% | Avg Asian handicap margin | AH units | O/U | Over% | GF | GA | ML ROI | BTTS | Clean sheet |
|---|
| All games | 61492 | 23035-15422-23035 | 37.5% | 16700-16700-28092 | 50.0% | +0.00 | +0.0 | 24318-22620-658 | 51.8% | 1.40 | 1.40 | -4.3% | 54% | 26% |
| League games | 57906 | 21622-14662-21622 | 37.3% | 15669-15669-26568 | 50.0% | +0.00 | +0.0 | 22834-21378-594 | 51.6% | 1.39 | 1.39 | -4.2% | 54% | 26% |
| Champions League | 3586 | 1413-760-1413 | 39.4% | 1031-1031-1524 | 50.0% | +0.00 | +0.0 | 1484-1242-64 | 54.4% | 1.52 | 1.52 | -6.0% | 52% | 27% |
| Home | 30746 | 13781-7711-9254 | 44.8% | 8181-8519-14046 | 49.0% | -0.01 | -239.5 | 12159-11310-329 | 51.8% | 1.56 | 1.23 | -3.4% | 54% | 30% |
| Away | 30746 | 9254-7711-13781 | 30.1% | 8519-8181-14046 | 51.0% | +0.01 | +239.5 | 12159-11310-329 | 51.8% | 1.23 | 1.56 | -5.1% | 54% | 22% |
| AH favorite | 15693 | 8637-3831-3225 | 55.0% | 7266-7911-516 | 47.9% | +0.05 | -120.5 | 8284-7398-11 | 52.8% | 1.79 | 1.01 | -1.2% | 54% | 36% |
| AH underdog | 15693 | 3225-3831-8637 | 20.6% | 7911-7266-516 | 52.1% | -0.05 | +120.5 | 8284-7398-11 | 52.8% | 1.01 | 1.79 | -7.2% | 54% | 17% |
| AH fav by 1+ goal | 4734 | 3358-859-517 | 70.9% | 1987-2231-516 | 47.1% | +0.05 | -138.5 | 2859-1869-6 | 60.5% | 2.31 | 0.85 | -1.0% | 52% | 43% |
| AH dog by 1+ goal | 4734 | 517-859-3358 | 10.9% | 2231-1987-516 | 52.9% | -0.05 | +138.5 | 2859-1869-6 | 60.5% | 0.85 | 2.31 | -13.1% | 52% | 9% |
| Price fav (odds-on) | 15411 | 9648-3350-2413 | 62.6% | 4404-4284-6723 | 50.7% | +0.07 | -78.0 | 6646-5411-180 | 55.1% | 2.03 | 0.94 | -1.2% | 54% | 39% |
| Price dog +200 or longer | 26197 | 5400-6426-14371 | 20.6% | 7803-7248-11146 | 51.8% | -0.06 | +88.0 | 10493-9717-269 | 51.9% | 1.02 | 1.79 | -7.4% | 54% | 17% |
| After a win | 22943 | 9325-5666-7952 | 40.6% | 6126-6366-10451 | 49.0% | -0.02 | -228.5 | 9211-8430-254 | 52.2% | 1.49 | 1.34 | -5.0% | 54% | 28% |
| After a draw | 15344 | 5683-3847-5814 | 37.0% | 4230-4140-6974 | 50.5% | +0.02 | +87.5 | 6064-5660-148 | 51.7% | 1.38 | 1.40 | -2.7% | 54% | 26% |
| After a loss | 22861 | 7916-5826-9119 | 34.6% | 6323-6168-10370 | 50.6% | +0.01 | +146.5 | 8986-8490-256 | 51.4% | 1.33 | 1.45 | -4.6% | 54% | 25% |
| 3 days rest or less | 9530 | 3893-2370-3267 | 40.8% | 2854-2719-3957 | 51.2% | +0.06 | +132.5 | 3795-3739-88 | 50.4% | 1.47 | 1.30 | -2.4% | 53% | 29% |
| 7+ days rest | 30911 | 11132-7885-11894 | 36.0% | 8049-8083-14779 | 49.9% | -0.01 | -23.5 | 12095-11106-315 | 52.1% | 1.37 | 1.44 | -4.4% | 55% | 26% |
| Rest disadvantage | 15898 | 6652-3946-5300 | 41.8% | 4715-4647-6536 | 50.4% | +0.05 | +69.5 | 6510-5850-147 | 52.7% | 1.52 | 1.30 | -3.0% | 54% | 29% |
| Aug–Oct | 19176 | 7141-4894-7141 | 37.2% | 5013-5013-9150 | 50.0% | +0.00 | +0.0 | 7702-7140-308 | 51.9% | 1.42 | 1.42 | -5.2% | 55% | 26% |
| Nov–Jan | 15734 | 5885-3964-5885 | 37.4% | 5054-5054-5626 | 50.0% | +0.00 | +0.0 | 6172-5680-66 | 52.1% | 1.38 | 1.38 | -3.8% | 54% | 26% |
| Feb–May | 22928 | 8647-5634-8647 | 37.7% | 6140-6140-10648 | 50.0% | +0.00 | +0.0 | 8854-8390-176 | 51.3% | 1.39 | 1.39 | -3.4% | 53% | 27% |
Moneyline price buckets
Win rate vs the win rate the closing price implied (with the bookmaker margin still in it) and flat-stake ROI. Positive ROI in a bucket over a long run is rare; check it holds across seasons before trusting it.
| Price | Bets | W-D-L | Win% | Implied% | ROI |
|---|
| Odds-on −200 or shorter | 4855 | 3665-759-431 | 75.5% | 76.0% | -0.5% |
| Odds-on −200 to −101 | 10556 | 5983-2591-1982 | 56.7% | 57.6% | -1.6% |
| +100 to +149 | 10391 | 4616-2878-2897 | 44.4% | 44.8% | -0.9% |
| +150 to +249 | 14173 | 4637-4150-5386 | 32.7% | 34.2% | -4.3% |
| +250 to +399 | 9957 | 2282-2682-4993 | 22.9% | 24.5% | -6.6% |
| +400 or longer | 10010 | 1274-1968-6768 | 12.7% | 13.9% | -10.1% |
By competition
| Competition | Matches | Home win | Draw | Away win | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Goals/match | With closing odds |
|---|
| Bundesliga | 3123 | 44.3% | 24.8% | 30.9% | 61.5% | 58.8% | 3.11 | 3121 |
| Championship | 5702 | 43.3% | 26.3% | 30.4% | 47.3% | 51.4% | 2.55 | 5657 |
| Premier League | 3880 | 44.5% | 23.4% | 32.1% | 54.3% | 52.7% | 2.83 | 3880 |
| La Liga | 3892 | 45.5% | 26.3% | 28.2% | 46.8% | 51.7% | 2.63 | 3883 |
| Ligue 1 | 3556 | 44.0% | 25.3% | 30.8% | 53.1% | 52.7% | 2.73 | 3546 |
| MLS | 4920 | 48.8% | 25.3% | 25.9% | 50.3% | 59.3% | 2.98 | 4913 |
| Serie A | 3880 | 42.1% | 25.4% | 32.6% | 52.2% | 54.0% | 2.75 | 3879 |
| Champions League | 1793 | 46.5% | 21.2% | 32.3% | 54.4% | 52.4% | 3.04 | 1092 |