WNBA betting angles — tested out of sample
16 pre-defined angles were graded at closing prices on 2017 through 2021 (in-sample) and then, unchanged, on 2022 to date (out-of-sample). An angle qualifies only if it shows a profit at the actual closing odds in both periods with at least 150 / 60 bets. Most don't — that's the point. 0 of 16 qualified.
No upcoming games match a qualifying angle right now.
Every angle tested
| Angle | Market | In-sample W-L-P | Win% | ROI | Out-of-sample W-L-P | Win% | ROI | Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdogs of +10 or more | ats | 73-63-3 | 53.7% | +2.3% | 172-142-3 | 54.8% | +4.3% | no |
| Overs, totals 8+ below the season average | over | 53-28-0 | 65.4% | +25.1% | 78-67-0 | 53.8% | +2.6% | no |
| Rest advantage of 2+ days | ats | 91-109-8 | 45.5% | -12.5% | 156-141-3 | 52.5% | +0.2% | no |
| Unders, totals 8+ above the season average | under | 113-107-2 | 51.4% | -2.0% | 92-85-1 | 52.0% | -0.9% | no |
| Moneyline underdogs +300 or longer | ml | 43-197-0 | 17.9% | +3.8% | 79-383-0 | 17.1% | -1.6% | no |
| Home underdogs | ats | 154-152-5 | 50.3% | -4.0% | 278-270-2 | 50.7% | -3.3% | no |
| Moneyline favorites −400 or shorter | ml | 191-39-0 | 83.0% | -4.1% | 368-76-0 | 82.9% | -5.6% | no |
| Home moneyline underdogs | ml | 97-203-0 | 32.3% | -4.3% | 163-365-0 | 30.9% | -5.6% | no |
| Home teams after an ATS loss | ats | 205-199-9 | 50.7% | -3.2% | 351-361-7 | 49.3% | -5.8% | no |
| Road favorites | ats | 152-154-5 | 49.7% | -5.3% | 270-278-2 | 49.3% | -5.9% | no |
| Underdogs after a loss of 10+ | ats | 119-141-7 | 45.8% | -12.4% | 228-236-7 | 49.1% | -6.0% | no |
| Fade teams that won by 10+ last game (bet opponent) | ats | 202-222-7 | 47.6% | -9.0% | 354-369-3 | 49.0% | -6.4% | no |
| Unders, postseason games | under | 36-42-2 | 46.2% | -11.6% | 51-57-1 | 47.2% | -9.7% | no |
| Postseason underdogs | ats | 38-40-2 | 48.7% | -7.1% | 50-59-0 | 45.9% | -12.2% | no |
| Favorites of −10 or more | ats | 63-73-3 | 46.3% | -11.5% | 142-172-3 | 45.2% | -13.3% | no |
| Rested team vs opponent on 2nd night of a back-to-back | ats | 13-16-2 | 44.8% | -13.5% | 37-51-1 | 42.0% | -19.4% | no |
Odds come from ESPN-listed closing lines and prices (spreads/totals without a listed price are graded at −110). Where a game had no posted price it is excluded. Passing both halves lowers the odds that an angle is pure noise; it does not prove an edge, and books adjust.