WNBA betting trends since 2016
League-wide results against closing lines. Each game counts twice in the split table (once per team), so "Home" and "Away" mirror each other. Records are what happened, not what will happen.
By season (home-team view)
| Season | G | Home win% | Home ATS | Favorite ATS | O/U | Avg total scored | Avg closing total | Games with line |
|---|
| 2016 | 220 | 55.5% | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 164.23 | – | 0 |
| 2017 | 219 | 59.4% | 20-20-1 50.0% | 20-20-1 50.0% | 13-26-2 33.3% over | 162.59 | 154.12 | 41 |
| 2018 | 220 | 55.5% | 96-118-6 44.9% | 108-106-6 50.5% | 111-106-3 51.2% over | 165.71 | 163.12 | 220 |
| 2019 | 220 | 61.8% | 118-96-5 55.1% | 101-112-5 47.4% | 122-95-2 56.2% over | 158.51 | 145.58 | 219 |
| 2020 | 147 | 50.3% | 73-72-2 50.3% | 79-66-2 54.5% | 72-75 49.0% over | 165.49 | 164.72 | 147 |
| 2021 | 210 | 54.3% | 100-106-3 48.5% | 96-110-3 46.6% | 100-107-2 48.3% over | 161.55 | 162.66 | 209 |
| 2022 | 240 | 54.2% | 106-128-6 45.3% | 114-120-6 48.7% | 126-114 52.5% over | 164.38 | 163.52 | 240 |
| 2023 | 261 | 52.9% | 136-120-5 53.1% | 126-130-5 49.2% | 134-125-2 51.7% over | 165.19 | 164.15 | 261 |
| 2024 | 263 | 54.4% | 115-148 43.7% | 133-130 50.6% | 132-131 50.2% over | 163.35 | 163.96 | 263 |
| 2025 | 311 | 56.3% | 155-156 49.8% | 149-162 47.9% | 150-161 48.2% over | 163.31 | 163.10 | 311 |
| 2026 | 351 | 55.0% | 187-164 53.3% | 170-181 48.4% | 183-168 52.1% over | 173.68 | 172.24 | 351 |
Situational splits (all teams)
| Split | G | SU | Win% | ATS | Cover% | Avg ATS margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA | ML ROI |
|---|
| All games | 5324 | 2662-2662 | 50.0% | 2234-2234-56 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 2286-2216-22 | 50.8% | 82.4 | 82.4 | -3.3% |
| Regular season | 4914 | 2457-2457 | 50.0% | 2047-2047-52 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 2088-2042-16 | 50.6% | 82.4 | 82.4 | -3.1% |
| Postseason | 410 | 205-205 | 50.0% | 187-187-4 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 198-174-6 | 53.2% | 82.3 | 82.3 | -6.0% |
| Home | 2656 | 1474-1182 | 55.5% | 1106-1125-28 | 49.6% | -0.1 | 1142-1106-11 | 50.8% | 83.4 | 81.4 | -5.4% |
| Away | 2656 | 1182-1474 | 44.5% | 1125-1106-28 | 50.4% | +0.1 | 1142-1106-11 | 50.8% | 81.4 | 83.4 | -1.2% |
| Neutral site | 12 | 6-6 | 50.0% | 3-3 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 81.3 | 81.3 | -5.2% |
| Favorite | 2261 | 1552-709 | 68.6% | 1096-1137-28 | 49.1% | -0.9 | 1143-1107-11 | 50.8% | 85.3 | 79.6 | -5.2% |
| Underdog | 2261 | 709-1552 | 31.4% | 1137-1096-28 | 50.9% | +0.9 | 1143-1107-11 | 50.8% | 79.6 | 85.3 | -1.4% |
| Fav by 8+ | 753 | 617-136 | 81.9% | 350-392-11 | 47.2% | -0.7 | 383-363-7 | 51.3% | 88.3 | 77.7 | -5.2% |
| Dog by 8+ | 753 | 136-617 | 18.1% | 392-350-11 | 52.8% | +0.7 | 383-363-7 | 51.3% | 77.7 | 88.3 | -0.4% |
| Home favorite | 1399 | 968-431 | 69.2% | 673-705-21 | 48.8% | -0.9 | 704-685-10 | 50.7% | 85.5 | 79.3 | -5.7% |
| Home underdog | 862 | 278-584 | 32.3% | 432-423-7 | 50.5% | +1.1 | 439-422-1 | 51.0% | 80.1 | 85.0 | -5.4% |
| Road favorite | 862 | 584-278 | 67.7% | 423-432-7 | 49.5% | -1.1 | 439-422-1 | 51.0% | 85.0 | 80.1 | -4.4% |
| Road underdog | 1399 | 431-968 | 30.8% | 705-673-21 | 51.2% | +0.9 | 704-685-10 | 50.7% | 79.3 | 85.5 | +1.0% |
| After a win | 2659 | 1465-1194 | 55.1% | 1114-1130-21 | 49.6% | -0.1 | 1136-1120-9 | 50.4% | 83.2 | 81.7 | -1.5% |
| After a loss | 2650 | 1191-1459 | 44.9% | 1120-1101-35 | 50.4% | +0.2 | 1149-1094-13 | 51.2% | 81.6 | 83.1 | -5.0% |
| After ATS cover | 2230 | 1127-1103 | 50.5% | 1108-1096-24 | 50.3% | -0.1 | 1113-1107-8 | 50.1% | 82.5 | 82.3 | -2.2% |
| After ATS loss | 2227 | 1106-1121 | 49.7% | 1091-1103-31 | 49.7% | +0.1 | 1135-1078-12 | 51.3% | 82.5 | 82.6 | -3.8% |
| Rest advantage | 1346 | 704-642 | 52.3% | 564-539-22 | 51.1% | +0.2 | 582-538-5 | 52.0% | 83.1 | 82.3 | +1.5% |
| Rest disadvantage | 1346 | 642-704 | 47.7% | 539-564-22 | 48.9% | -0.2 | 582-538-5 | 52.0% | 82.3 | 83.1 | -4.2% |
| 2nd night of back-to-back | 167 | 77-90 | 46.1% | 77-58-5 | 57.0% | +0.5 | 83-57 | 59.3% | 83.0 | 84.8 | +10.0% |
| Total 165+ | 2026 | 1013-1013 | 50.0% | 1003-1003-20 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 996-1016-14 | 49.5% | 85.7 | 85.7 | -1.7% |
| Total under 158 | 874 | 437-437 | 50.0% | 429-429-16 | 50.0% | +0.0 | 458-410-6 | 52.8% | 77.6 | 77.6 | -7.3% |
Moneyline price buckets
Win rate vs the win rate the closing price implied (with the bookmaker margin still in it) and flat-stake ROI. Positive ROI in a bucket over a long run is rare; check it holds across seasons before trusting it.
| Price | Bets | W-L | Win% | Implied% | ROI |
|---|
| Fav −300 or shorter | 910 | 729-181 | 80.1% | 84.9% | -5.6% |
| Fav −300 to −201 | 506 | 348-158 | 68.8% | 70.9% | -3.2% |
| Fav −200 to −151 | 430 | 260-170 | 60.5% | 63.7% | -5.1% |
| Fav −150 to −101 | 487 | 254-233 | 52.2% | 55.8% | -6.2% |
| Dog +100 to +149 | 551 | 250-301 | 45.4% | 45.1% | +0.8% |
| Dog +150 to +199 | 452 | 167-285 | 36.9% | 37.1% | -0.0% |
| Dog +200 to +299 | 482 | 130-352 | 27.0% | 29.6% | -7.6% |
| Dog +300 or longer | 702 | 122-580 | 17.4% | 17.4% | +0.3% |