Long Shot Tickets
The apps sell you 5,000-to-1 tickets for $1 built from coin flips padded with vig. Almost nobody hits. Here’s the real ticket: every leg is a play that held up out-of-sample, with the true payout and the true odds of hitting — no hype.
Built Oct 25, 2026 02:12 PM CT. Legs come only from The Bets to Take. Legs are in different games, so we treat them as independent: true hit chance = product of leg chances. Updated daily. NBA legs are added automatically when an NBA angle qualifies — right now none of 18 tested NBA angles does, so every leg here is NFL.
3-leg ticket — 3 legs
+6227.22× decimal · $1 returns $7.22
| Kickoff (CT) | Game | Leg | Odds | Est. win% | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25, 07:20 PM CT | KC @ SEA | UNDER 42.5 | -110 | 53.0% | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Mon Oct 26, 07:15 PM CT | DAL @ PHI | UNDER 43.5 | -102 | 53.0% | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Sun Nov 01, 07:20 PM CT | PHI @ WAS | UNDER 41.5 | -110 | 53.0% | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
14.87%our true hit probability
1 in 7how often it hits
+0.074expected value per $1
1 in 7.2hit rate needed to break even at this payout
Max available (4 qualified legs) ticket — 4 legs
+1,30914.09× decimal · $1 returns $14.09
| Kickoff (CT) | Game | Leg | Odds | Est. win% | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25, 07:20 PM CT | KC @ SEA | UNDER 42.5 | -110 | 53.0% | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Mon Oct 26, 07:15 PM CT | DAL @ PHI | UNDER 43.5 | -102 | 53.0% | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Sun Nov 01, 07:20 PM CT | PHI @ WAS | UNDER 41.5 | -110 | 53.0% | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
| Mon Nov 02, 07:15 PM CT | CHI @ SEA | UNDER 46.5 | -105 | 53.0% | Unders, primetime games: 220-183-4 in 2016–2022, 115-103-2 since 2023 |
7.88%our true hit probability
1 in 13how often it hits
+0.111expected value per $1
1 in 14.1hit rate needed to break even at this payout
Why there’s no 13-leg 5,000× ticket today
A 10–13 leg ticket at −110 a leg pays roughly 640× to 4,500×. To build one honestly we need 10+ legs that each carry a real edge. Right now our filter passes 5 legs for the coming slate. We could pad it with coin flips to hit a big number — that’s exactly what the books do to you. Padding each extra −110 coin-flip leg cuts the ticket’s value by ~4.5%. When enough qualified legs exist, the max ticket posts automatically.
The honest math of long shots
- Stake small. Even a positive-EV 5-leg ticket loses the large majority of the time.
- Edges compound both ways: five −110 legs at a true 54% are worth about +16% per dollar; at 52% they’re −4%; five coin flips are −21%. That’s why only qualified legs go on.
- Same-game parlays break this math — the book prices the correlation and hides the margin. See Parlays.