MLB betting trends since 2016
League-wide results against closing lines. Each game counts twice in the split table (once per team), so "Home" and "Away" mirror each other. Records are what happened, not what will happen.
By season (home-team view)
| Season | G | Home win% | Home Run line | Favorite Run line | O/U | Avg total scored | Avg closing total | Games with line |
|---|
| 2016 | 2464 | 52.9% | 1119-1294 46.4% | 1014-1395 42.1% | 1151-1163-99 49.7% over | 8.93 | 8.36 | 2413 |
| 2017 | 2471 | 54.2% | 1151-1280 47.3% | 1031-1390 42.6% | 1135-1182-114 49.0% over | 9.28 | 8.86 | 2431 |
| 2018 | 2465 | 52.7% | 1126-1233 47.7% | 1011-1348 42.9% | 1085-1168-106 48.2% over | 8.89 | 8.54 | 2359 |
| 2019 | 2465 | 52.9% | 1125-1338 45.7% | 1112-1351 45.1% | 1177-1181-105 49.9% over | 9.64 | 9.11 | 2463 |
| 2020 | 951 | 55.0% | 467-484 49.1% | 427-520 45.1% | 452-460-39 49.6% over | 9.26 | 8.74 | 951 |
| 2021 | 2466 | 54.0% | 1148-1312 46.7% | 1062-1397 43.2% | 1177-1184-99 49.9% over | 9.05 | 8.57 | 2460 |
| 2022 | 2470 | 53.4% | 1150-1318 46.6% | 1082-1386 43.8% | 1141-1209-118 48.6% over | 8.55 | 8.17 | 2468 |
| 2023 | 2471 | 51.8% | 1287-1184 52.1% | 1056-1410 42.8% | 1189-1196-86 49.9% over | 9.21 | 8.74 | 2471 |
| 2024 | 2472 | 52.1% | 1221-1246 49.5% | 1071-1396 43.4% | 1228-1239 49.8% over | 8.78 | 8.31 | 2467 |
| 2025 | 2477 | 54.3% | 1233-1244 49.8% | 971-1504 39.2% | 1198-1279 48.4% over | 8.88 | 8.44 | 2477 |
| 2026 | 2466 | 52.9% | 1218-1248 49.4% | 1031-1435 41.8% | 1190-1164-112 50.6% over | 8.93 | 8.38 | 2466 |
Situational splits (all teams)
| Split | G | SU | Win% | Run line | Cover% | Avg Run line margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA | ML ROI |
|---|
| All games | 51276 | 25636-25636-4 | 50.0% | 25426-25426 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 24246-24850-1756 | 49.4% | 4.51 | 4.51 | -3.6% |
| Regular season | 50394 | 25195-25195-4 | 50.0% | 25018-25018 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 23850-24454-1732 | 49.4% | 4.52 | 4.52 | -3.5% |
| Postseason | 882 | 441-441 | 50.0% | 408-408 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 396-396-24 | 50.0% | 4.04 | 4.04 | -3.9% |
| Home | 25585 | 13615-11968-2 | 53.2% | 12226-13150 | 48.2% | -0.16 | 12101-12398-877 | 49.4% | 4.55 | 4.47 | -3.7% |
| Away | 25585 | 11968-13615-2 | 46.8% | 13150-12226 | 51.8% | +0.16 | 12101-12398-877 | 49.4% | 4.47 | 4.55 | -3.4% |
| Neutral site | 106 | 53-53 | 50.0% | 50-50 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 44-54-2 | 44.9% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -2.6% |
| Favorite | 25400 | 14702-10697-1 | 57.9% | 10868-14532 | 42.8% | -0.71 | 12099-12424-877 | 49.3% | 4.91 | 4.11 | -3.2% |
| Underdog | 25400 | 10697-14702-1 | 42.1% | 14532-10868 | 57.2% | +0.71 | 12099-12424-877 | 49.3% | 4.11 | 4.91 | -3.9% |
| Fav by 1.5+ | 25400 | 14702-10697-1 | 57.9% | 10868-14532 | 42.8% | -0.71 | 12099-12424-877 | 49.3% | 4.91 | 4.11 | -3.2% |
| Dog by 1.5+ | 25400 | 10697-14702-1 | 42.1% | 14532-10868 | 57.2% | +0.71 | 12099-12424-877 | 49.3% | 4.11 | 4.91 | -3.9% |
| Home favorite | 14729 | 8772-5956-1 | 59.6% | 6213-8516 | 42.2% | -0.76 | 7026-7175-528 | 49.5% | 4.86 | 4.11 | -3.3% |
| Home underdog | 10671 | 4741-5930 | 44.4% | 6016-4655 | 56.4% | +0.66 | 5073-5249-349 | 49.1% | 4.12 | 4.97 | -4.3% |
| Road favorite | 10671 | 5930-4741 | 55.6% | 4655-6016 | 43.6% | -0.66 | 5073-5249-349 | 49.1% | 4.97 | 4.12 | -3.1% |
| Road underdog | 14729 | 5956-8772-1 | 40.4% | 8516-6213 | 57.8% | +0.76 | 7026-7175-528 | 49.5% | 4.11 | 4.86 | -3.6% |
| After a win | 25628 | 13176-12451-1 | 51.4% | 12625-12789 | 49.7% | -0.04 | 12119-12415-880 | 49.4% | 4.57 | 4.45 | -3.6% |
| After a loss | 25614 | 12441-13170-3 | 48.6% | 12785-12622 | 50.3% | +0.04 | 12109-12426-872 | 49.4% | 4.45 | 4.57 | -3.5% |
| After run line cover | 25634 | 12734-12899-1 | 49.7% | 12773-12645 | 50.3% | +0.03 | 12137-12400-881 | 49.5% | 4.51 | 4.53 | -4.0% |
| After run line loss | 25610 | 12886-12721-3 | 50.3% | 12638-12766 | 49.7% | -0.03 | 12091-12442-871 | 49.3% | 4.52 | 4.49 | -3.1% |
| Rest advantage | 1984 | 1009-975 | 50.9% | 998-966 | 50.8% | +0.05 | 973-925-66 | 51.3% | 4.65 | 4.48 | -4.1% |
| Rest disadvantage | 1984 | 975-1009 | 49.1% | 966-998 | 49.2% | -0.05 | 973-925-66 | 51.3% | 4.48 | 4.65 | -2.7% |
| Total 9.5+ | 11400 | 5700-5700 | 50.0% | 5700-5700 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 5406-5810-184 | 48.2% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -3.7% |
| Total 7.5 or less | 12426 | 6212-6212-2 | 50.0% | 6213-6213 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 6154-5986-286 | 50.7% | 3.98 | 3.98 | -3.7% |
| Day after a game (no rest) | 42995 | 21494-21499-2 | 50.0% | 21345-21369 | 50.0% | -0.00 | 20200-21049-1465 | 49.0% | 4.51 | 4.51 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline fav −200 or more | 4050 | 2843-1207 | 70.2% | 2171-1879 | 53.6% | +0.46 | 1987-1923-140 | 50.8% | 5.52 | 3.58 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline dog +150 or more | 7437 | 2493-4944 | 33.5% | 3680-3757 | 49.5% | -0.12 | 3555-3606-276 | 49.6% | 3.73 | 5.32 | -5.8% |
| Apr–May | 16502 | 8250-8250-2 | 50.0% | 8165-8165 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 7806-7948-576 | 49.5% | 4.42 | 4.42 | -3.4% |
| Jun–Jul | 15682 | 7841-7841 | 50.0% | 7800-7800 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 7422-7648-530 | 49.3% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -3.3% |
| Aug–Sep | 19072 | 9535-9535-2 | 50.0% | 9451-9451 | 50.0% | +0.00 | 9012-9240-650 | 49.4% | 4.51 | 4.51 | -3.9% |
Moneyline price buckets
Win rate vs the win rate the closing price implied (with the bookmaker margin still in it) and flat-stake ROI. Positive ROI in a bucket over a long run is rare; check it holds across seasons before trusting it.
| Price | Bets | W-L | Win% | Implied% | ROI |
|---|
| Fav −300 or shorter | 493 | 374-119 | 75.9% | 78.1% | -3.0% |
| Fav −300 to −201 | 3286 | 2295-991 | 69.8% | 70.1% | -0.4% |
| Fav −200 to −151 | 7430 | 4477-2953 | 60.3% | 63.2% | -4.6% |
| Fav −150 to −101 | 17050 | 9124-7924-2 | 53.5% | 55.1% | -3.0% |
| Dog +100 to +149 | 15021 | 6597-8424 | 43.9% | 45.5% | -3.3% |
| Dog +150 to +199 | 5467 | 1982-3485 | 36.3% | 37.3% | -3.0% |
| Dog +200 to +299 | 1830 | 489-1341 | 26.7% | 30.6% | -12.3% |
| Dog +300 or longer | 140 | 22-118 | 15.7% | 21.1% | -32.4% |