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Chet Holmgren

C · #7 · OKC · 2023-24 to 2026-27 · 233 games played
Minutes risk: Medium
Player vs team → Player vs player →

Minutes risk

Props depend on minutes. This section shows how steady his minutes have been and what happened in past situations where coaches tend to cut playing time. It's based on his last 20 games (last two seasons) and on his history. It describes the past and doesn't predict the future.

Minutes risk: MediumNext game 2026-10-25 vs LAC · line -16.5
  • Blowout risk: spread 16.5; he averages 26.4 min in 15+ pt games vs 31.5
29.6 ± 4.6Last-20 minutes per game (median 30.5, range 22–41, 10th pct 23.8)
29.2 / 30.3Last 5 / last 10 MPG · 2026-27 29.5 in 2 games
0% · 10% · 30%Last 20: share of games under 20 / 24 / 28 min · 15% were 6+ under his median

Minutes by game situation (last 2 seasons)

SituationGMPG
Final margin within 1531.5
Blowout (15+ either way)3826.4
Rested (1+ days off)29.4
2nd night of back-to-back1027.1
Team back-to-back 2nd nights: he sat1 of 11
DNPs listed as rest / injury management0 (0 on back-to-backs)
Started100% of games

Per-36 vs actual (last 20 games)

Per-36 numbers make bench players look better than they are. What counts for a prop is his real production at the minutes he actually plays.

PTSREBAST
Per 36 minutes19.210.81.6
Actual per game (29.6 min)15.88.91.4

Minutes distribution (last 2 seasons)

<1010–1515–2020–2424–2828–3232–3636–4040+

Last 30 games: minutes

Red = 6+ minutes under his median.

Returning from absences: minutes in the first 10 games back

Each row is one stretch of 2+ straight team games he missed. "Before" is his average over the 10 games before the absence. Game-by-game minutes after his return show how any restriction actually played out.

MissedReasonGamesBeforeG1G2G3G4G5G6G7G8G9G10G1 % of beforeG1–3 avg %
2026-04-10 → 2026-04-12Low back; spasms2262532293431333135412796%110%
2026-03-07 → 2026-03-09N/a; flu2292832332227302633301896%106%
2025-04-11 → 2025-04-13Low back; spasm2282133322928264029343075%103%
2025-03-05 → 2025-03-07Right lower leg;22426293435232833252633107%122%
2024-11-11 → 2025-02-05Right iliac wing; fracture40262225302828321530262983%97%

Minutes by season

SeasonTeamGMPGMedianStd dev<20 min<28 minB2BRestedBlowoutsClose
2026-27OKC229.529.52.10%0%–28.0–29.5
2025-26OKC8429.230.04.51%36%27.129.426.431.6
2024-25OKC5528.429.05.85%33%30.927.926.530.3
2023-24OKC9230.031.05.03%25%25.430.926.231.9

Season by season (per game)

SeasonTeamGGSMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO3PMPRA+/-FG%3P%FT%Team SUTeam ATS
2023-24OKC828229.416.57.92.40.62.31.61.626.95.253.037.079.357-2546-35-1
2024-25OKC323227.415.08.02.00.72.21.81.425.09.249.037.975.426-621-11
2025-26OKC696929.017.18.91.70.61.91.61.327.79.855.736.279.256-1335-34
2026-27OKC2229.5131220.5420275.547.101002-02-0
Career18518528.916.48.32.10.62.21.61.426.97.653.336.878.8141-44104-80-1
Playoffs (career)484831.015.28.21.20.81.91.41.124.66.549.930.179.133-1525-23

Prop hit rates

How often he reached each number (games played only). Green = 60%+, red = 40% or less. Books set prop lines near the median, so a hit rate alone is not an edge; compare it with the line you're offered.

StatLineLast 10Last 202026-272025-26Career
PTS10+8/10 80%18/20 90%2/2 100%77/84 92%201/233 86%
PTS15+2/10 20%11/20 55%0/2 0%53/84 63%141/233 61%
PTS20+0/10 0%5/20 25%0/2 0%26/84 31%67/233 29%
PTS25+0/10 0%1/20 5%0/2 0%10/84 12%20/233 9%
PTS30+0/10 0%1/20 5%0/2 0%2/84 2%6/233 3%
REB4+9/10 90%19/20 95%2/2 100%79/84 94%221/233 95%
REB6+7/10 70%17/20 85%2/2 100%70/84 83%183/233 79%
REB8+6/10 60%13/20 65%1/2 50%58/84 69%135/233 58%
REB10+3/10 30%7/20 35%1/2 50%29/84 35%77/233 33%
REB12+1/10 10%4/20 20%1/2 50%14/84 17%35/233 15%
AST3+0/10 0%3/20 15%0/2 0%14/84 17%65/233 28%
AST5+0/10 0%1/20 5%0/2 0%1/84 1%16/233 7%
AST7+0/10 0%0/20 0%0/2 0%0/84 0%3/233 1%
3PM1+2/10 20%10/20 50%0/2 0%55/84 65%164/233 70%
3PM2+1/10 10%8/20 40%0/2 0%28/84 33%88/233 38%
3PM3+0/10 0%4/20 20%0/2 0%11/84 13%40/233 17%
3PM4+0/10 0%1/20 5%0/2 0%5/84 6%15/233 6%
3PM5+0/10 0%0/20 0%0/2 0%2/84 2%6/233 3%
PRA20+6/10 60%15/20 75%2/2 100%65/84 77%187/233 80%
PRA25+3/10 30%11/20 55%1/2 50%50/84 60%141/233 61%
PRA30+1/10 10%5/20 25%1/2 50%31/84 37%79/233 34%
PRA35+0/10 0%3/20 15%0/2 0%18/84 21%37/233 16%
PRA40+0/10 0%1/20 5%0/2 0%3/84 4%12/233 5%
STL1+6/10 60%13/20 65%1/2 50%40/84 48%117/233 50%
STL2+1/10 10%6/20 30%0/2 0%15/84 18%38/233 16%
BLK1+7/10 70%16/20 80%2/2 100%65/84 77%188/233 81%
BLK2+5/10 50%13/20 65%2/2 100%45/84 54%140/233 60%

Splits (per game)

SplitGTeam SUMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO3PM
All games233174-5929.316.28.31.90.72.11.61.4
Last 10106-430.311.78.31.10.71.61.50.3
Last 202016-429.615.88.91.41.121.41.1
2026-2722-029.5131220.5420
2025-268467-1729.216.78.81.60.71.81.51.2
Home11995-2428.916.18.21.80.72.21.61.4
Away11479-3529.816.38.42.00.72.01.51.3
Started233174-5929.316.28.31.90.72.11.61.4
Team won174174-029.317.18.520.82.31.61.5
Team lost590-5929.613.57.71.60.51.71.41.1
Team favored203158-4529.116.18.41.80.72.11.61.4
Team underdog3016-1430.816.77.72.50.62.21.31.4
Back-to-back (2nd night)3119-1227.214.87.22.10.61.81.71.3
1 day rest146112-3429.816.18.61.90.72.21.61.3
2+ days rest5239-1329.217.18.11.60.62.11.41.6
Playoffs4833-1531.015.28.21.20.81.91.41.1

Vs every opponent (per game)

OppGSUMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO3PM
DEN1812-630.815.610.41.50.62.71.51.1
SAS179-828.812.27.21.60.61.51.50.8
MIN159-629.615.86.52.10.81.80.91.5
LAL1410-42815.17.41.21.11.61.11.3
DAL138-530.5158.11.50.82.21.51.1
PHX1211-129.518.47.81.90.61.40.81.5
IND115-631.614.29.81.10.51.71.40.8
HOU106-430.417.68.31.90.72.72.12.1
NOP109-13217.49.71.90.42.82.11.7
MEM99-027.716.27.81.40.72.61.41.8
UTA98-128.820.98.11.91.12.91.81.7
GSW86-227.119.19.12.80.51.82.51.2
POR88-025.413.27.92.50.63.21.60.6
LAC76-13117.38.74.10.71.721.7
SAC75-23014.97.91.41.122.40.6
ATL65-127.519.282.30.822.32.3
BKN54-129.416.68.42.60.81.42.21.4
BOS53-229.614.47.82.20111.6
CHA54-12818720.81.81.42
CHI55-027.613.41020.61.620.6
MIL53-228.8148.22.40.41.21.40.8
ORL55-029.215.69.61.40.4210.6
PHI53-228.6247.61.8032.23
TOR54-129.812.47.821.421.21.2
CLE44-031.21910.82.50.83.81.52.2
DET43-127.514.592.21.53.22.21.5
MIA43-131158.22.20.22.810.8
NYK44-030.217.86.81.20.21.21.82
WAS33-027.324.781.7021.32

Team with him vs without him

SeasonTeamMPGWith: GW-LATSMarginWithout: GW-LATSMargin
2025-26OKC29.28467-1743-41+11.8138-54-9+2.2
2024-25OKC28.45542-1332-23+10.75142-935-16+12.6
2023-24OKC30.09263-2952-39+7.300-00-0–

Best on-court partners (2025-26+)

Minutes together and net rating per 100 possessions (pbpstats).

WithSeasonMin+/-Net
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander2025-261174+495+20.0
Cason Wallace2025-261135+360+15.6
Luguentz Dort2025-261127+339+15.3
Isaiah Hartenstein2025-26694+309+21.1
Ajay Mitchell2025-26686+238+15.7
Jalen Williams2025-26673+213+15.4
Isaiah Joe2025-26540+164+13.6
Aaron Wiggins2025-26529+106+9.9
Alex Caruso2025-26396+187+24.1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander2025-26 P355+1+0.6
Jaylin Williams2025-26311+108+15.5
Luguentz Dort2025-26 P256-4+1.4
Ajay Mitchell2025-26 P226+90+20.5
Isaiah Hartenstein2025-26 P224+12+4.4
Kenrich Williams2025-26201+48+14.0
Cason Wallace2025-26 P198+21+10.8
Alex Caruso2025-26 P181+59+19.4

Teammates he wins with (both started)

TeammateTeamGW-LATSMargin
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC215163-52119-95+10.1
Luguentz DortOKC213154-59111-101+8.7
Jalen WilliamsOKC167121-4697-69+9.5
Isaiah HartensteinOKC9576-1952-43+11.2
Josh GiddeyOKC8862-2650-37+7.7
Cason WallaceOKC7762-1543-34+12.3
Aaron WigginsOKC2418-612-12+9.0
Ajay MitchellOKC2121-015-6+17.6

Injury history

Official NBA injury report entries (2021-22 onward) and whether he then played.

Game dateTeamStatusReasonPlayed?MINPTS
2026-04-12OKCOutLow Back; Spasms–––
2026-04-10OKCOutLow Back; Spasms–––
2026-03-27OKCOutRight Hip; Contusion–––
2026-03-18OKCQuestionableLeft Hip; ContusionYes2211
2026-03-09OKCQuestionableN/a; Flu–––
2026-03-07OKCOutN/a; Flu–––
2026-02-25OKCDoubtfulLow Back; Spasms–––
2026-02-24OKCQuestionableLow Back; SpasmsYes307
2026-02-04OKCOutLow Back; SpasmsNo––
2026-02-03OKCQuestionableLow Back; SpasmsYes2716
2026-01-09OKCOutBilateral Shins; Soreness–––
2025-12-22OKCOutN/a; Illness–––
2025-11-05OKCOutLow Back; Sprain–––
2025-11-02OKCOutLow Back; Sprain–––
2025-10-30OKCOutN/a; Low Back Soreness–––
2025-10-28OKCOutLow Back; Soreness–––
2025-10-27OKCAvailable-Yes3218
2025-10-25OKCAvailableProtocol -Yes2731
2025-04-13OKCOutLow Back; Spasm–––
2025-04-11OKCOutLow Back; Spasm–––
2025-03-31OKCQuestionableLeft Hip; Injury ManagementYes265
2025-03-29OKCOutLeft Hip; Injury Management–––
2025-03-25OKCQuestionableLeft Hip; StrainYes3318
2025-03-23OKCQuestionableLeft Hip; Strain–––
2025-03-15OKCOutRest–––
2025-03-07OKCQuestionableRight Lower Leg; ContusionNo––
2025-03-05OKCOutRight Lower Leg;No––
2025-03-02OKCOutLeft Ankle; Sprain–––
2025-02-28OKCQuestionableRight Calf; ContusionYes157
2025-02-24OKCOutRest–––
2025-02-12OKCOutRest - Rest–––
2025-02-08OKCOutRest - Rest–––
2025-02-05OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-02-03OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-02-01OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-29OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-26OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-23OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-22OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-19OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-17OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-16OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-14OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-12OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-10OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-08OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-05OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-03OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2025-01-02OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-31OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-29OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-28OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-26OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-23OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-20OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-19OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-17OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-14OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-10OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-07OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-05OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-03OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-12-01OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-29OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-27OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-25OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-20OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-19OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-17OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-15OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-13OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-11-11OKCOutRight Iliac Wing; Fracture–––
2024-01-31OKCAvailable-Yes3218
2023-04-14OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-04-12OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-04-09OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-04-06OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-04-04OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-04-02OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-31OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-29OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-28OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-26OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-24OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-23OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-21OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-19OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-16OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-14OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-12OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-11OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-08OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-07OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-05OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-03OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-03-01OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-28OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-26OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-24OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-23OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-15OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-13OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-10OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-07OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-06OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-04OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-02-01OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-30OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-27OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-25OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-22OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-20OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-18OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-15OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-13OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-12OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-10OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-08OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-06OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-04OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2023-01-03OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-31OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-29OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-27OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-23OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-21OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-19OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-17OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-16OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-14OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-12OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-10OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-07OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-05OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-12-03OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-30OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-28OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-26OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-25OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-23OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-21OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-18OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-16OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-14OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-13OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-11OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-09OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-07OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-05OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-03OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-11-01OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-10-29OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-10-27OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-10-25OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-10-23OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-10-22OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––
2022-10-19OKCOutRight Foot; Surgery–––

Games missed while on the roster (3)

DateTeamOppBox score noteTeam
2026-02-04OKCSASBACK SPASMSL
2025-03-07OKCPORRIGHT LOWER LEG CONTUSIONW
2025-03-05OKCMEMRIGHT LOWER LEG CONTUSIONW

Game log (last 120 of 233 — full log in player vs team)

DateOppScoreSULineATSMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO3PMFGMFGA3PAFTMFTAOREBDREBPF+/-PRA
2026-10-22DEN96-84W-7.5W28121721430591229841231
2026-10-20@SAS116-104W-1.5W311472041038188430-123
2026-05-30 POSTSAS103-111L-3.5L33440222012024132-38
2026-05-28 POST@SAS91-118L+3.5L2410111120048122472-922
2026-05-26 POSTSAS127-114W-3.5W3016111113069144383-128
2026-05-24 POST@SAS82-103L+2.5L261092013038146362221
2026-05-22 POST@SAS123-108W+3.5W281431000157234214-218
2026-05-20 POSTSAS122-113W-7.5W2713420010510234132619
2026-05-18 POSTSAS115-122L-7.5L41880121227422263-716
2026-05-11 POST@LAL115-110W-12.5L351690101069244182125
2026-05-09 POST@LAL131-108W-9.5W31189101109144002711828
2026-05-07 POSTLAL125-107W-15.5W33229342237115573631934
2026-05-05 POSTLAL108-90W-15.5W312412113029172443901037
2026-04-27 POST@PHX131-122W-11.5L3424123202291654421022139
2026-04-25 POST@PHX121-109W-8.5W291072120056100075-519
2026-04-22 POSTPHX120-107W-17.5L3219800433712623172627
2026-04-19 POSTPHX119-84W-16.5W25167022125106442511223
2026-04-08@LAC128-110W-8.5W313014524231013471031131949
2026-04-07@LAL123-87W-17.5W221510022216103231933025
2026-04-05UTA146-111W-24.5W22217104148115121613029
2026-04-02LAL139-96W-9.5W187402111374001331311
2026-03-30DET114-110W-11.5L3013912231611300366123
2026-03-29NYK111-100W-7.5W33169210105103672731627
2026-03-25@BOS109-119L-2.5L261050001137234141-515
2026-03-23@PHI123-103W-16.5W30179405136114221801030
2026-03-21@WAS132-111W-21.5L27181000210691663732428
2026-03-18@BKN121-92W-19.5W2211211130262780231814
2026-03-17@ORL113-108W-9.5L3320121010081424521001033
2026-03-15MIN116-103W-8.5W32219231019134223622332
2026-03-12BOS104-102W-8.5L2814900011510433362223
2026-03-04@NYK103-100W-4.5L322882003611191100173938
2026-03-03@CHI116-108W-9.5L261211202204102462921025
2026-03-01@DAL100-87W-16.5L28199122218145224511329
2026-02-27DEN127-121W-6.5L38152131311582462190639
2026-02-24@TOR116-107W+1.5W30794131038111360-1220
2026-02-22CLE121-113W+4.5W3417154132151446921311736
2026-02-20BKN105-86W-16.5W2615720042362770711424
2026-02-12MIL93-110L-13.5L27161340200512466580-833
2026-02-11@PHX136-109W-7.5W2113420010481550411919
2026-02-09@LAL119-110W-7.5W311310212115102223731225
2026-02-07HOU106-112L-3.5L351714000115103683113531
2026-02-03ORL128-92W-11.5W271610100007124243712127
2026-02-01@DEN121-111W-7.5W28144103113107780421019
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