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Branden Carlson

C · #15 · OKC · 2024-25 to 2025-26 · 73 games played
Day-To-Day Concussion Concussion · est. return 2026-10-27
Minutes risk: Medium
Player vs team → Player vs player →

Minutes risk

Props depend on minutes. This section shows how steady his minutes have been and what happened in past situations where coaches tend to cut playing time. It's based on his last 20 games (last two seasons) and on his history. It describes the past and doesn't predict the future.

Minutes risk: MediumNext game 2026-10-25 vs LAC · line -16.5
  • Volatile: last 20: ±10.8 min std dev, 20% of games 6+ min under his median
  • Injury list: ESPN: Day-To-Day — Concussion Concussion
13.3 ± 10.8Last-20 minutes per game (median 11.0, range 2–42, 10th pct 2.9)
21.2 / 13.7Last 5 / last 10 MPG
80% · 90% · 90%Last 20: share of games under 20 / 24 / 28 min · 20% were 6+ under his median

Minutes by game situation (last 2 seasons)

SituationGMPG
Final margin within 157.5
Blowout (15+ either way)2614.3
Rested (1+ days off)12.1
2nd night of back-to-back810.1
Team back-to-back 2nd nights: he sat3 of 11
DNPs listed as rest / injury management0 (0 on back-to-backs)
Started10% of games

Per-36 vs actual (last 20 games)

Per-36 numbers make bench players look better than they are. What counts for a prop is his real production at the minutes he actually plays.

PTSREBAST
Per 36 minutes18.310.52.0
Actual per game (13.3 min)6.83.90.8

Minutes distribution (last 2 seasons)

<1010–1515–2020–2424–2828–3232–3636–4040+

Last 30 games: minutes

Red = 6+ minutes under his median.

Returning from absences: minutes in the first 10 games back

Each row is one stretch of 2+ straight team games he missed. "Before" is his average over the 10 games before the absence. Game-by-game minutes after his return show how any restriction actually played out.

MissedReasonGamesBeforeG1G2G3G4G5G6G7G8G9G10G1 % of beforeG1–3 avg %
2026-02-27 → 2026-03-21Low back; strain1110231287374219%55%
2026-02-07 → 2026-02-24Low back; spasms7124231287374233%25%
2026-01-29 → 2026-02-03Not listed in box score3121642312873742128%59%
2026-01-13 → 2026-01-19Not listed in box score4121676164231287139%84%
2025-11-26 → 2025-11-30G league - two-way310322241216253261129%157%
2025-11-07 → 2025-11-11Not listed in box score361717115993222412277%244%
2025-03-09 → 2025-03-16G league - two-way582372213922225277%129%
2025-02-23 → 2025-03-05G league - two-way771423722139222194%204%
2025-02-12 → 2025-02-13Not listed in box score28314237221392239%173%
2025-01-03 → 2025-01-08Not with team34283177181142150%108%
2024-12-19 → 2024-12-28Concussion protocol54432831771811495%71%

Minutes by season

SeasonTeamGMPGMedianStd dev<20 min<28 minB2BRestedBlowoutsClose
2025-26OKC4211.79.09.381%95%10.112.114.37.5
2024-25OKC318.14.08.690%97%3.68.98.27.7

Season by season (per game)

SeasonTeamGGSMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO3PMPRA+/-FG%3P%FT%Team SUTeam ATS
2024-25OKC3108.13.91.80.50.20.70.20.76.21.344.333.377.827-425-6
2025-26OKC42411.75.83.00.70.20.60.40.79.4-0.652.736.057.732-1022-20
Career73410.25.02.50.60.20.70.30.78.00.249.834.965.959-1447-26

Prop hit rates

How often he reached each number (games played only). Green = 60%+, red = 40% or less. Books set prop lines near the median, so a hit rate alone is not an edge; compare it with the line you're offered.

StatLineLast 10Last 202026-272025-26Career
PTS10+3/10 30%5/20 25%–9/42 21%12/73 16%
PTS15+2/10 20%3/20 15%–3/42 7%5/73 7%
PTS20+2/10 20%2/20 10%–2/42 5%3/73 4%
PTS25+1/10 10%1/20 5%–1/42 2%2/73 3%
REB4+5/10 50%10/20 50%–16/42 38%21/73 29%
REB6+3/10 30%6/20 30%–8/42 19%10/73 14%
REB8+2/10 20%3/20 15%–3/42 7%4/73 5%
REB10+2/10 20%3/20 15%–3/42 7%4/73 5%
REB12+1/10 10%1/20 5%–1/42 2%1/73 1%
AST3+1/10 10%1/20 5%–2/42 5%2/73 3%
AST5+1/10 10%1/20 5%–1/42 2%1/73 1%
3PM1+5/10 50%9/20 45%–19/42 45%34/73 47%
3PM2+2/10 20%3/20 15%–6/42 14%11/73 15%
3PM3+2/10 20%2/20 10%–4/42 10%6/73 8%
3PM4+1/10 10%1/20 5%–1/42 2%1/73 1%
3PM5+1/10 10%1/20 5%–1/42 2%1/73 1%
PRA20+2/10 20%4/20 20%–4/42 10%6/73 8%
PRA25+2/10 20%3/20 15%–3/42 7%4/73 5%
PRA30+2/10 20%2/20 10%–2/42 5%3/73 4%
PRA35+2/10 20%2/20 10%–2/42 5%3/73 4%
PRA40+1/10 10%1/20 5%–1/42 2%1/73 1%
STL1+1/10 10%3/20 15%–5/42 12%9/73 12%
STL2+1/10 10%2/20 10%–3/42 7%4/73 5%
BLK1+5/10 50%9/20 45%–18/42 43%31/73 42%
BLK2+3/10 30%4/20 20%–6/42 14%12/73 16%

Splits (per game)

SplitGTeam SUMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO3PM
All games7359-1410.25.02.50.60.20.70.30.7
Last 10106-413.78.14.310.21.10.41.1
Last 202013-713.36.83.90.80.20.80.50.8
2025-264232-1011.75.83.00.70.20.60.40.7
Home4135-610.54.92.30.50.20.70.30.8
Away3224-89.85.12.60.70.10.60.30.7
Started42-23016.26.520.81.80.83
Off the bench6957-1294.32.20.50.10.60.30.6
Team won5959-09.84.92.30.60.20.60.30.7
Team lost140-1411.45.13.10.70.10.70.40.9
Team favored7059-119.84.82.20.50.20.60.30.7
Team underdog30-319107.72.3010.31.3
Back-to-back (2nd night)136-77.61.81.90.40.20.40.20.2
1 day rest4539-610.25.42.50.60.20.70.20.8
2+ days rest1514-112.16.62.90.60.20.70.70.9

Vs every opponent (per game)

OppGSUMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO3PM
UTA88-012.46.82.40.40.11.20.40.9
MEM55-09.63.810.40.20.20.61
NOP55-016.49.83.81010.81
DAL42-28.53.82100.20.20.8
LAL44-09.532.810.50.80.50.2
PHI44-08.55.82.20.50.80.50.21
PHX42-215.89.23.20.20.51.50.21.5
POR43-112.85.53101.20.51
SAC44-03.51.51.500000
CHA32-1144.32.30010.30.7
IND32-172100.30.70.30
LAC33-07.721.70.300.30.30
SAS30-371.72.30.300.700.3
ATL22-06.53000000
CHI22-0611.50.50100
GSW22-012.595.51100.51
MIL21-19.54.53.50.500.500.5
TOR22-0411.510000
WAS22-0642.50.500.501
BKN11-0188521102
CLE11-01711400103
DEN10-137231250103
DET10-144420010
HOU10-123100011
MIA11-020000000
NYK11-023000001

Best on-court partners (2025-26+)

Minutes together and net rating per 100 possessions (pbpstats).

WithSeasonMin+/-Net
Kenrich Williams2025-26193+4+5.6
Aaron Wiggins2025-26189-10-0.4
Isaiah Joe2025-26180+11+7.4
Ajay Mitchell2025-26176+29+11.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander2025-26168+24+7.4

Injury history

Official NBA injury report entries (2021-22 onward) and whether he then played.

Game dateTeamStatusReasonPlayed?MINPTS
2026-10-23POROutConcussion Protocol–––
2026-10-21POROutConcussion Protocol–––
2026-03-21OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-18OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-17OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-15OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-12OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-09OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-07OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-04OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-03OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-03-01OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-02-27OKCOutLow Back; Strain–––
2026-02-12OKCOutLow Back; Spasms–––
2025-12-07OKCAvailableN/a; Nasal FractureYes2413
2025-12-05OKCAvailableN/a; Nasal FractureYes229
2025-12-02OKCAvailableN/a; Nasal FractureYes33
2025-11-30OKCAvailableN/a; Nasal FractureNo––
2025-11-28OKCAvailableN/a; Nasal FractureNo––
2025-11-26OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-11-23OKCAvailableN/a; Nasal FractureYes98
2025-11-21OKCAvailableN/a; Nasal FractureYes97
2025-11-19OKCAvailableN/a; Nasal FractureYes52
2025-04-06OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-03-16OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-03-15OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-03-12OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-03-10OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-03-09OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-03-07OKCAvailable-Yes142
2025-03-05OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-03-02OKCAvailable-–––
2025-02-28OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-02-26OKCOutG League - Two-Way–––
2025-01-08OKCOutNot With Team–––
2025-01-05OKCAvailable-No––
2025-01-03OKCAvailable-No––
2024-12-28OKCOutConcussion ProtocolNo––
2024-12-26OKCOutConcussion Protocol–––
2024-12-23OKCOutConcussion Protocol–––
2024-12-10OKCProbableG League - On AssignmentYes10

Games missed while on the roster (28)

DateTeamOppBox score noteTeam
2026-04-08OKCLACCOACH'S DECISIONW
2026-03-30OKCDETCOACH'S DECISIONW
2026-03-29OKCNYKCOACH'S DECISIONW
2026-03-25OKCBOSCOACH'S DECISIONL
2025-12-19OKCMINCOACH'S DECISIONL
2025-11-30OKCPORCOACH'S DECISIONW
2025-11-28OKCPHXCOACH'S DECISIONW
2025-06-08OKCINDDNPW
2025-05-22OKCMINDNPW
2025-04-02OKCDETDNPW
2025-03-23OKCLACCOACH'S DECISIONW
2025-03-03OKCHOUCOACH'S DECISIONW
2025-01-29OKCGSWCOACH'S DECISIONL
2025-01-26OKCPORCOACH'S DECISIONW
2025-01-05OKCBOSCOACH'S DECISIONW
2025-01-03OKCNYKCOACH'S DECISIONW
2024-12-31OKCMINCOACH'S DECISIONW
2024-12-28OKCCHACONCUSSION PROTOCOLW
2024-12-20OKCMIACOACH'S DECISIONW
2024-12-19OKCORLCOACH'S DECISIONW
2024-12-14OKCHOUCOACH'S DECISIONW
2024-12-07OKCNOPCOACH'S DECISIONW
2024-12-01OKCHOUCOACH'S DECISIONL
2024-11-29OKCLALDNPW
2024-11-27OKCGSWCOACH'S DECISIONW
2024-11-20OKCPORCOACH'S DECISIONW
2024-11-19OKCSASCOACH'S DECISIONL
2024-11-17OKCDALCOACH'S DECISIONL

Game log

DateOppScoreSULineATSMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO3PMFGMFGA3PAFTMFTAOREBDREBPF+/-PRA
2026-04-12PHX103-135L-7.5L4226101251510201012190-1837
2026-04-10@DEN107-127L+2.5L372312501038181044392-2140
2026-04-07@LAL123-87W-17.5W7821000134212021-111
2026-04-05UTA146-111W-24.5W81120010156200110-413
2026-04-02LAL139-96W-9.5W12441022023001042-29
2026-03-27CHI131-113W-18.5L3010000000000010-41
2026-03-23@PHI123-103W-16.5W201000000110001101
2026-02-25@DET116-124L+10.5W44420010242003101110
2026-02-04@SAS106-116L+9.5L163700201121003411010
2026-01-27NOP104-95W-14.5L620000001210000022
2026-01-23IND114-117L-15.5L7200001013000001-122
2026-01-21@MIL122-102W-12.5W16961010148300150916
2026-01-11MIA124-112W-14.5L2000000001100000-50
2026-01-09@MEM117-116W-5.5L16510110125300012-166
2026-01-07UTA129-125W-19.5L11351021014112231-19
2026-01-05CHA97-124L-15.5L1834000001521204047
2026-01-04@PHX105-108L-10.5L7010000002100010-101
2026-01-02@GSW131-94W-13.5W22151122011692223831328
2025-12-31POR124-95W-15.5W201271012259602161420
2025-12-29ATL140-129W-17.5L11600000023122001-76
2025-12-28PHI129-104W-14.5W642010002300011106
2025-12-25SAS102-117L-10.5L2200000012100000-12
2025-12-23@SAS110-130L-6.5L3001000000000001-21
2025-12-22MEM119-103W-15.5W251132002347600121-416
2025-12-18LAC122-101W-16.5W16440011023000131218
2025-12-10PHX138-89W-15.5W1211200101551000201113
2025-12-07@UTA131-101W-11.5W241360011359602152119
2025-12-05DAL132-111W-15.5W22963000146200152018
2025-12-02@GSW124-112W-11.5W3300000111100000-13
2025-11-23POR122-95W-16.5W9812010234300010-211
2025-11-21@UTA144-112W-16.5W970101003411100038
2025-11-19SAC113-99W-18.5L521000001310001203
2025-11-17@NOP126-109W-18.5L11742020125324310-313
2025-11-15@CHA109-96W-17.5L17720021135300112-29
2025-11-12LAL121-92W-8.5W17051210004200142-26
2025-11-05@POR119-121L-3.5L8010010004100012-131
2025-11-04@LAC126-107W-8.5W4210000012100011-33
2025-11-02NOP137-106W-13.5W2011510021584001411717
2025-10-30WAS127-108W-15.5W4321000111100020-16
2025-10-28SAC107-101W-8.5L421000001100001153
2025-10-25@ATL117-100W-8.5W2000000000000001-10
2025-10-23@IND141-135W-7.5L100000000000000010
2025-04-13@NOP115-100W-13.5W392610203221019844643838
2025-04-11@UTA145-111W-8.5W2592103004105110211712
2025-04-09@PHX125-112W-6.5W2000000000000000-40
2025-04-08LAL136-120W-9.5W2001000002200000-11
2025-04-04@HOU111-125L-5.5L231000111110001004
2025-03-31CHI145-117W-15.5W9221020003224112-55
2025-03-29IND132-111W-8.5W1343012001532212127
2025-03-27MEM125-104W-10.5W230000011220000013
2025-03-25@SAC121-105W-8.5W2000000000000000-90
2025-03-21CHA141-106W-20.5W731001011220001094
2025-03-19PHI133-100W-12.5W2316622213610713422124
2025-03-07POR107-89W-1.5W14231020004322031-206
2025-02-21@UTA130-107W-15.5W330000111110000013
2025-02-10NOP137-101W-17.5W630000011110000143
2025-02-08@MEM125-112W-1.5W100000000110000000
2025-02-07TOR121-109W-18.5L2210000011000010-53
2025-01-23DAL115-121L-11.5L430000011110000363
2025-01-22UTA123-114W-15.5L1162001022440002198
2025-01-19BKN127-101W-16.5W18852110236500051715
2025-01-17@DAL98-106L-2.5L732101111220002056
2025-01-16CLE134-114W-2.5W171140010348600132015
2025-01-14@PHI118-102W-15.5W330000011110000113
2025-01-12@WAS136-95W-15.5W853001012420012248
2025-01-10@NYK126-101W-2.5W2300000111100000-33
2025-01-02LAC116-98W-12.5W3001000000000000-21
2024-12-29MEM130-106W-8.5W4010001001100010-31
2024-12-17MIL81-97L-5.5L301000000000001011
2024-12-10DAL118-104W-4.5W100000000000000020
2024-12-05@TOR129-92W-10.5W6022000001100110104
2024-12-03UTA133-106W-13.5W822011000542202124
2024-11-25@SAC130-109W-3.5W324000001100022026