NFL betting trends since 2016
League-wide against-the-spread and totals results against closing lines. Small samples are noisy, so check the game count (G) before you trust a percentage.
By season
| Season | Games | Home win% | Home ATS | Home cover% | Fav win% | Fav ATS | Fav cover% | Over-Under | Over% | Pts/game |
|---|
| 2016 | 267 | 58.5% | 131-131-5 | 50.0% | 65.2% | 137-124-5 | 52.5% | 142-124-1 | 53.4% | 45.7 |
| 2017 | 267 | 56.9% | 133-126-8 | 51.4% | 69.7% | 133-123-8 | 52.0% | 125-142 | 46.8% | 43.6 |
| 2018 | 267 | 59.6% | 122-136-9 | 47.3% | 65.7% | 118-140-9 | 45.7% | 124-140-3 | 47.0% | 46.6 |
| 2019 | 267 | 52.3% | 113-144-10 | 44.0% | 64.3% | 120-137-10 | 46.7% | 132-134-1 | 49.6% | 45.7 |
| 2020 | 269 | 50.0% | 133-136 | 49.4% | 67.2% | 119-150 | 44.2% | 134-130-5 | 50.8% | 49.5 |
| 2021 | 285 | 51.8% | 136-145-4 | 48.4% | 62.3% | 131-150-4 | 46.6% | 129-153-3 | 45.7% | 46.1 |
| 2022 | 284 | 56.7% | 135-139-10 | 49.3% | 66.3% | 124-150-10 | 45.3% | 125-156-3 | 44.5% | 44.0 |
| 2023 | 285 | 56.5% | 135-136-14 | 49.8% | 67.4% | 141-130-14 | 52.0% | 130-151-4 | 46.3% | 43.8 |
| 2024 | 285 | 54.7% | 146-135-4 | 52.0% | 70.5% | 148-133-4 | 52.7% | 152-130-3 | 53.9% | 46.0 |
| 2025 | 285 | 53.5% | 144-140-1 | 50.7% | 65.8% | 138-146-1 | 48.6% | 148-137 | 51.9% | 46.0 |
| 2026 | 95 | 51.1% | 40-49-6 | 44.9% | 63.8% | 41-48-6 | 46.1% | 48-47 | 50.5% | 46.0 |
Favorites by closing spread
| Split | G | SU | Win% | ATS | Cover% | Avg ATS margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA |
|---|
| Fav −1 to −2.5 | 659 | 346-309-4 | 52.8% | 323-335-1 | 49.1% | -1.5 | 306-349-4 | 46.7% | 22.5 | 22.2 |
| Fav −3 | 407 | 243-163-1 | 59.9% | 177-189-41 | 48.4% | -0.0 | 189-213-5 | 47.0% | 23.8 | 20.9 |
| Fav −3.5 to −6.5 | 970 | 641-326-3 | 66.3% | 463-499-8 | 48.1% | +0.1 | 485-478-7 | 50.4% | 25.6 | 20.7 |
| Fav −7 | 160 | 122-36-2 | 77.2% | 76-73-11 | 51.0% | +1.6 | 80-79-1 | 50.3% | 27.6 | 19.0 |
| Fav −7.5 to −9.5 | 308 | 232-75-1 | 75.6% | 141-167 | 45.8% | +0.2 | 162-144-2 | 52.9% | 27.7 | 19.4 |
| Fav −10 to −13.5 | 252 | 215-37 | 85.3% | 126-119-7 | 51.4% | +0.9 | 125-123-4 | 50.4% | 29.0 | 16.9 |
| Fav −14+ | 96 | 86-10 | 89.6% | 44-49-3 | 47.3% | -0.6 | 41-55 | 42.7% | 29.5 | 14.7 |
Key numbers — final margin frequency
| Margin | Games | % of games | |
|---|
| 3 | 422 | 14.8% |
|
| 7 | 245 | 8.6% |
|
| 6 | 195 | 6.8% |
|
| 14 | 143 | 5.0% |
|
| 2 | 134 | 4.7% |
|
| 10 | 134 | 4.7% |
|
| 4 | 133 | 4.7% |
|
| 1 | 129 | 4.5% |
|
| 5 | 128 | 4.5% |
|
| 8 | 126 | 4.4% |
|
| 17 | 100 | 3.5% |
|
| 16 | 67 | 2.3% |
|
Underdog situations
| Split | G | SU | Win% | ATS | Cover% | Avg ATS margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA |
|---|
| All underdogs | 2852 | 956-1885-11 | 33.7% | 1431-1350-71 | 51.5% | +0.1 | 1388-1441-23 | 49.1% | 20.3 | 25.4 |
| Home dogs | 1049 | 364-679-6 | 34.9% | 521-504-24 | 50.8% | +0.2 | 490-550-9 | 47.1% | 20.3 | 24.7 |
| Road dogs | 1740 | 570-1166-4 | 32.8% | 880-814-46 | 51.9% | +0.1 | 871-856-13 | 50.4% | 20.3 | 26.0 |
| Division dogs | 1005 | 328-671-6 | 32.8% | 515-471-19 | 52.2% | +0.1 | 493-504-8 | 49.4% | 19.8 | 25.2 |
| Dogs of 7+ | 816 | 158-655-3 | 19.4% | 408-387-21 | 51.3% | -0.6 | 408-401-7 | 50.4% | 18.0 | 28.3 |
| Dogs off a bye | 152 | 56-95-1 | 37.1% | 80-69-3 | 53.7% | -0.2 | 63-87-2 | 42.0% | 20.1 | 25.0 |
| Dogs after a loss | 1632 | 509-1115-8 | 31.3% | 823-765-44 | 51.8% | -0.0 | 792-826-14 | 48.9% | 19.8 | 25.6 |
| Primetime dogs | 627 | 209-416-2 | 33.4% | 315-294-18 | 51.7% | +0.0 | 286-335-6 | 46.1% | 20.1 | 25.3 |
| Playoff dogs | 122 | 46-76 | 37.7% | 68-54 | 55.7% | +1.1 | 59-61-2 | 49.2% | 21.8 | 26.1 |
Totals by closing total (home-team view; Over% is what matters)
| Split | G | SU | Win% | ATS | Cover% | Avg ATS margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA |
|---|
| Total 0–38 | 116 | 60-56 | 51.7% | 63-52-1 | 54.8% | +1.0 | 51-64-1 | 44.3% | 18.9 | 17.0 |
| Total 38–41 | 304 | 178-125-1 | 58.7% | 158-130-16 | 54.9% | +1.2 | 165-138-1 | 54.5% | 22.1 | 19.0 |
| Total 41–44 | 656 | 361-291-4 | 55.4% | 314-327-15 | 49.0% | +0.2 | 305-348-3 | 46.7% | 22.2 | 20.3 |
| Total 44–47 | 751 | 442-305-4 | 59.2% | 372-361-18 | 50.8% | +0.5 | 371-374-6 | 49.8% | 24.2 | 21.6 |
| Total 47–50 | 609 | 303-304-2 | 49.9% | 278-318-13 | 46.6% | -0.9 | 294-308-7 | 48.8% | 24.5 | 23.7 |
| Total 50–53 | 254 | 133-121 | 52.4% | 110-140-4 | 44.0% | -0.9 | 124-127-3 | 49.4% | 26.4 | 25.3 |
| Total 53–70 | 166 | 85-81 | 51.2% | 73-89-4 | 45.1% | -0.2 | 79-85-2 | 48.2% | 28.1 | 27.1 |
Situational (home-team view)
| Split | G | SU | Win% | ATS | Cover% | Avg ATS margin | O/U | Over% | PF | PA |
|---|
| Primetime games | 627 | 356-269-2 | 57.0% | 309-300-18 | 50.7% | -0.0 | 286-335-6 | 46.1% | 23.6 | 21.8 |
| Division games | 1005 | 546-453-6 | 54.7% | 478-508-19 | 48.5% | -0.1 | 493-504-8 | 49.4% | 23.3 | 21.7 |
| Wind ≥ 15 mph | 204 | 116-88 | 56.9% | 109-91-4 | 54.5% | +0.8 | 89-113-2 | 44.1% | 22.2 | 19.8 |
| Temp ≤ 32°F | 133 | 79-54 | 59.4% | 75-57-1 | 56.8% | +0.6 | 64-67-2 | 48.9% | 23.5 | 19.7 |
| Dome / closed | 821 | 432-385-4 | 52.9% | 390-419-12 | 48.2% | -0.4 | 414-402-5 | 50.7% | 24.7 | 23.3 |
| Playoffs | 122 | 77-45 | 63.1% | 65-57 | 53.3% | +1.5 | 59-61-2 | 49.2% | 26.7 | 21.2 |
| 2026 season | 95 | 48-46-1 | 51.1% | 40-49-6 | 44.9% | -1.5 | 48-47 | 50.5% | 23.1 | 22.9 |
ATS leaderboard — 2026
| Team | G | ATS | Cover% | ATS margin | O/U |
|---|
| LV | 6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | +3.4 | 4-2 |
| MIN | 5 | 4-1 | 80.0% | +6.8 | 1-4 |
| NYJ | 6 | 4-1-1 | 80.0% | +1.8 | 2-4 |
| CHI | 7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | +3.4 | 3-4 |
| PIT | 7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | +0.8 | 4-3 |
| BUF | 6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | +0.5 | 5-1 |
| CLE | 6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | +1.9 | 3-3 |
| DEN | 6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | -1.8 | 1-5 |
| NYG | 6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | +1.8 | 4-2 |
| SF | 6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | +7.2 | 3-3 |
| CAR | 5 | 3-2 | 60.0% | +4.5 | 2-3 |
| KC | 5 | 3-2 | 60.0% | +5.3 | 2-3 |
| ARI | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | -2.8 | 3-3 |
| CIN | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | +1.1 | 3-2 |
| IND | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | -2.9 | 4-2 |
| JAX | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | +5.6 | 2-4 |
| NE | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | +2.5 | 4-3 |
| TEN | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | -2.1 | 2-4 |
| WAS | 6 | 3-3 | 50.0% | -2.2 | 4-2 |
| NO | 7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | -2.5 | 4-3 |
| BAL | 6 | 2-3-1 | 40.0% | -0.2 | 3-3 |
| DAL | 6 | 2-3-1 | 40.0% | -3.2 | 4-2 |
| GB | 6 | 2-3-1 | 40.0% | -0.8 | 2-4 |
| ATL | 6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | +0.3 | 4-2 |
| HOU | 6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | -1.5 | 3-3 |
| LA | 6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | -5.2 | 3-3 |
| DET | 5 | 1-3-1 | 25.0% | -0.5 | 5-0 |
| MIA | 5 | 1-3-1 | 25.0% | -3.9 | 2-3 |
| SEA | 6 | 1-3-2 | 25.0% | -0.2 | 3-3 |
| TB | 6 | 1-4-1 | 20.0% | -1.2 | 3-3 |
| PHI | 6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | -5.6 | 3-3 |
| LAC | 6 | 0-5-1 | 0.0% | -8.5 | 1-5 |
ATS leaderboard — since 2016
| Team | G | ATS | Cover% | ATS margin | O/U |
|---|
| DET | 175 | 95-76-4 | 55.6% | +0.6 | 96-77-2 |
| NE | 187 | 101-81-5 | 55.5% | +1.4 | 89-97-1 |
| PIT | 181 | 98-80-3 | 55.1% | -0.0 | 78-101-2 |
| CIN | 176 | 94-78-4 | 54.7% | -0.4 | 84-88-4 |
| MIN | 176 | 91-79-6 | 53.5% | +0.4 | 87-87-2 |
| BUF | 186 | 95-85-6 | 52.8% | +2.0 | 96-87-3 |
| LA | 187 | 95-87-5 | 52.2% | +0.2 | 89-98 |
| GB | 183 | 93-86-4 | 52.0% | +0.1 | 98-84-1 |
| NO | 179 | 92-85-2 | 52.0% | +1.5 | 81-97-1 |
| MIA | 173 | 87-81-5 | 51.8% | -0.6 | 89-84 |
| BAL | 180 | 91-85-4 | 51.7% | +2.3 | 89-90-1 |
| DAL | 178 | 90-84-4 | 51.7% | +0.9 | 96-81-1 |
| KC | 193 | 97-91-5 | 51.6% | +1.0 | 86-105-2 |
| IND | 174 | 86-84-4 | 50.6% | +0.0 | 91-83 |
| PHI | 187 | 93-91-3 | 50.5% | +1.0 | 92-95 |
| NYG | 174 | 86-85-3 | 50.3% | -1.0 | 73-99-2 |
| SEA | 181 | 87-86-8 | 50.3% | +1.0 | 89-90-2 |
| CHI | 176 | 83-83-10 | 50.0% | +0.3 | 79-97 |
| LAC | 176 | 84-85-7 | 49.7% | -0.6 | 78-97-1 |
| SF | 185 | 91-92-2 | 49.7% | +0.6 | 96-84-5 |
| JAX | 177 | 86-88-3 | 49.4% | -0.3 | 84-92-1 |
| WAS | 175 | 85-87-3 | 49.4% | -1.1 | 90-83-2 |
| LV | 173 | 83-86-4 | 49.1% | -2.1 | 86-85-2 |
| ARI | 172 | 82-86-4 | 48.8% | -1.1 | 86-85-1 |
| DEN | 174 | 83-88-3 | 48.5% | -0.6 | 72-101-1 |
| TB | 181 | 81-93-7 | 46.6% | +0.7 | 94-86-1 |
| CAR | 172 | 78-90-4 | 46.4% | -1.7 | 88-83-1 |
| HOU | 182 | 82-95-5 | 46.3% | +0.1 | 77-103-2 |
| TEN | 178 | 79-93-6 | 45.9% | -0.5 | 92-84-2 |
| ATL | 176 | 76-98-2 | 43.7% | -0.6 | 85-91 |
| NYJ | 171 | 70-97-4 | 41.9% | -2.3 | 84-87 |
| CLE | 174 | 71-100-3 | 41.5% | -2.4 | 84-87-3 |
Referees (40+ games) — totals tendency
| Referee | G | O/U | Over% | Pts/game | Home ATS | Home cover% |
|---|
| Peter Morelli | 46 | 19-27 | 41.3% | 43.7 | 26-20 | 56.5% |
| Shawn Hochuli | 135 | 57-75-3 | 43.2% | 45.2 | 62-69-4 | 47.3% |
| Bill Vinovich | 171 | 73-95-3 | 43.5% | 45.3 | 72-95-4 | 43.1% |
| Alan Eck | 54 | 24-30 | 44.4% | 44.4 | 30-24 | 55.6% |
| Adrian Hill | 117 | 53-64 | 45.3% | 44.2 | 55-60-2 | 47.8% |
| Brad Allen | 165 | 75-89-1 | 45.7% | 45.3 | 83-79-3 | 51.2% |
| Land Clark | 100 | 46-52-2 | 46.9% | 45.2 | 43-53-4 | 44.8% |
| Tony Corrente | 97 | 45-50-2 | 47.4% | 45.1 | 50-44-3 | 53.2% |
| Clete Blakeman | 170 | 82-88 | 48.2% | 46.0 | 82-83-5 | 49.7% |
| Ron Torbert | 139 | 67-72 | 48.2% | 46.1 | 62-75-2 | 45.3% |
| Scott Novak | 116 | 56-60 | 48.3% | 45.5 | 46-67-3 | 40.7% |
| Craig Wrolstad | 167 | 81-85-1 | 48.8% | 45.3 | 71-95-1 | 42.8% |
| Clay Martin | 132 | 65-66-1 | 49.6% | 46.3 | 59-71-2 | 45.4% |
| Alex Kemp | 136 | 67-66-3 | 50.4% | 45.7 | 68-66-2 | 50.7% |
| Carl Cheffers | 170 | 86-84 | 50.6% | 45.2 | 90-77-3 | 53.9% |
| John Hussey | 170 | 84-82-4 | 50.6% | 46.7 | 100-63-7 | 61.3% |
| Shawn Smith | 134 | 68-65-1 | 51.1% | 47.6 | 65-64-5 | 50.4% |
| Walt Anderson | 64 | 33-31 | 51.6% | 46.3 | 36-24-4 | 60.0% |
| John Parry | 45 | 24-21 | 53.3% | 46.8 | 23-22 | 51.1% |
| Brad Rogers | 97 | 52-45 | 53.6% | 45.9 | 50-45-2 | 52.6% |
| Jerome Boger | 110 | 61-48-1 | 56.0% | 46.8 | 50-55-5 | 47.6% |
| Tra Blake | 48 | 27-21 | 56.2% | 44.4 | 21-26-1 | 44.7% |
| Walt Coleman | 46 | 26-20 | 56.5% | 45.1 | 22-23-1 | 48.9% |